How far really is 16000? Weekly Market Analysis : July 26 2021

 

• Weekly bullish hammer candle on Nifty &  indecisive “doji” for  Bank Nifty.

• Nifty had a V shape movement last week fall 2.4% from top and recovered most of it while Bank-nifty did the same falling 4.5% but could not recover much of it(2%).

• Latest nifty daily candle is an indecisive doji while bank-nifty latest candle is bullish kind of hammer.

• Nifty & Bank nifty both continue the Bollinger band volatility contraction within the narrow range.

• Nifty once again facing resistances faced earlier at 15850/15950 along with the rounding number psychological level of 16000.

• Previous swing low levels of  15500 - 15650 is support zone and then 15250-15400 levels below also could act as support levels  and 15000 level is seen if that is broken.

• Bank-nifty facing resistance at 35000 and has 3 previous resistances to clear 36500/37700 and has 34300-34650 levels as next supports below.

• Nifty RSI momentum gave  up previous week bullishness and is back in sideways zones. However the medium to long term momentum is intact in bullish area,

• Nifty weekly bearish momentum divergence that could pull it back to 15450 levels is still work in progress halfway targets.

• Bank Nifty momentum daily gave up momentum gains of previous week and went sideways  current week and weekly momentum also  has slipped slightly into sideways zone . monthly momentum  maintains to be in bullish zones.

• Nifty & Bank Nifty ADX trend indicator gave up bullish trend of last week and has crossed over to bear zones areas on daily but maintain trend bullishness on weekly and monthly timeframes

• Open interest data for Nifty showing a long buildup and Bank-nifty showing short covering based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for 01 July expiry is seen at 16000 with 15900 also seen having more writing while 15000  levels shows highest support point for nifty with 15800 support is close-by.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 35000 levels while highest put writing seen at 35000/34500  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.01 which is bullish while 0.94  for bank-nifty is not bearish.

• India VIX  moves 5%  and continue settle at 11.7 historic low levels last week.

• The Nifty IV 12.1 is above HIV 9.2  and  IVP remaining 0.4  levels 

• IT sector index showing a gravestone doji on daily top and the bearish divergence seen weekly can not be negated. Therefore need caution even though it is bullish. 

• FMCG is consolidating sideways last week forming a weekly doji and at  previous resistance zone and therefore need wait for the momentum catch up.

• Metal has the bullish positive reverse divergence seem to be working and market ended indecisive doji last week. Momentum on daily is slipped back to sideways from previous week bullish zones and need wait for momentum to get back.

• Auto sector continue to be bearish with double top patterns forming on daily and weekly and momentum on dail in bearish zones.

• Pharma forming a small body green candle and is bullish on all timeframes now but weekly has a bearish momentum divergence that could pull it back a bit on weekly basis.

• Last week FII sold> 5400 cr in cash.

• DII bought 5050 cr last that kept the market up last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII slipped down last week

• US markets recovered from a panic fall previous week and is green and moving up again this week.

• Dollar Index further strengthened at a major resistance zone.W breakout pattern seen.

• Crude Oil fall near 9% and later rebounded recovered most of it.

•  USD-INR currency pair fall near 1% from top and  could consolidate ot reattempt to channel top resistance again next week

•  Gold correct neat 2% last week and could continue bullishness heading to the channel top but with slow momentum.

• India VIX has fallen to lowest 11.7 levels and any spike could benefit vega positive strategies on options like double calendar.

• Therefore Nifty calendar spreads hedged is always bad idea for coming week due to v shape moves often.

• Markets fall &  bounced back once again from the support zones but momentum continue sideways and trend bearish and Bollinger band indicate that 1 month long consolidation continue with not yet breaking out on either side. 

• Trend overall bias is slight bullish with caution since weekly bearish divergence and FII selling concern.

• India vix are at difficult low volatile levels for option traders both buyers and sellers and non directional trades are only to be thought. Will there be immediate mean reversion spike or will it remain at this for long is uncertain.

• Positional long trades would hold good until a clear signal of  breaking  of major support zones indicated earlier, there is no point in exiting or shorting as of now.

Narrow Range Market :Weekly Market Analysis : July 5 2021

 

• False breakout weekly bearish candle on both Nifty & Bank Nifty.

• Nifty & Bank nifty shows a trending down move entire week on 1 hr charts and given up 20 day moving average support.

• Nifty weekly bearish candle open=high pattern.June month shows a spinning top small body.

• Nifty & Bank nifty seen taken support at previous swing lows.

• Latest nifty daily candle hammer-could be slightly bullish, 

• Bank nifty has a spinning top  candle pattern on daily and June month also has a bearish candle.

• Nifty & Bank nifty both has Bollinger band squeeze into narrow range and showing clear volatility contraction /consolidation.

• Nifty at major resistance confluence of previous resistances tested 5 times and near an all  time high 15915 and rounding number psychological level of 16000 close by.

• It immediate support at  15600 and then 15500 levels below acting good previous swing low supports and 15000 level are seen if that is broken.

• Bank nifty has 3 previous resistances to clear 37700/36500/35800/35300 and currently take  support near 34600-34800 levels and has 34000 as next support below

• Nifty RSI momentum has fallen off from bullish into into sideways zone and seen falling on  daily.However medium to long term momentum is intact in bullish area,

• Nifty daily both  bullish positive reverse divergences failed.

• Bank Nifty momentum daily continues to be in sideways zone and bent up  .Weekly momentum also seems to be slipping into sideways while monthly momentum  maintains to be in bullish zones.

• The bearish monthly momentum divergence seems to have worked out and pulled down bank nifty in June.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator continue in  bearish areas on daily timeframe with flat strength while weekly and monthly trend remain bullish with flat strength.

• Bank nifty has ADX trend indicator last week crossed over back to bearish  zones  on daily timeframe. The trend continue to be in bullish side on medium & long term timeframes with flat strength.

• Open interest data for Nifty and Bank nifty showing a short covering based on the futures contracts which is bullish.

• Highest options call writing for 08 July expiry is seen at 16000 with 15800 also seen having more writing while 15700  levels shows highest  support point for nifty with 15600/15500 support is close by.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 35000 levels while highest put writing seen at 34500  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 0.8  which is not bullish while 0.79  for bank-nifty also is not bullish enough.

• India VIX  fall to historic lowest levels of 12.1 which is more than 10% fall further.

• The IV is above HIV 11.5 and  IVP remaining 0.4  levels which is at the new low volatility regime. 

• IT sector is bullish with strength in momentum and trend on short/medium/long term charts. All time high ending with doji

• FMCG is bullish with momentum bullish divergence seen and could regain momentum to move further up.

• Metal is sideways on short term and need wait till momentum pickup.

• Auto sector weekly momentum range shifted and could move up in short term and need wait or some more momentum catchup.

• Pharma has now turned bullish last will with breakout as discussed previous week

• Last week FII sold>  5000 cr in cash did almost no buying net June month.

• Thanks to DII who bought all of last 12 day continuously in cash and June month had buying > 7000 cr that helps market form not crashing.

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII had dipped.

• US markets are bullish 

• Dollar Index rising up 92 level.

•  USD-INR currency pair broke out of at resistance zone and hit 75 levels but daily gravestone Doji show bearish pressure as well.

• Gold showing a hammer weekly candle and last week seen to be moving up from the support zone and probably good time to invest in for medium term.

• India VIX has fallen to lowest 12 levels and it could mean revert and therefore vega positive option strategies like calendar spread would be applied to benefit on it. 

• Therefore Nifty calendar spreads hedged is not bad idea for coming week.

• Markets at a narrow range bound phase and there is uncertainty as to how long it could consolidate here and also which side it would break down.Therefore trade with caution.

• India vix are at difficult low volatile levels for option traders both buyers and sellers and non directional trades are only to be thought.

• Momentum  is sideways and Trend is bearish for short term on both indices and bias is negative.

• Positional long trades would hold good until a clear signal of  breaking  of major support zones indicated earlier, there is no point in exiting or shorting as of now.

Was it just a shake out ?Weekly Market Analysis :June 21 2021

 

• A bearish candle after 5 continuous bullish weeks ,still made another higher high and all time high.

• Weekly spinning top candle is bearish

• Latest Daily candle hammer-could be slightly bullish on confirmation since during a small downtrend. 

• Nifty -moved up 2 days and did 3 days of 450 point correction with a harsh one on Friday to dip it to 15450 support levels last week before recovering back some of the momentum and settling to close to 15683.

• Bank nifty 15o0 point correction before it recovered 650 of it to still closing below previous close 

• Bank nifty has a spinning top bearish candle pattern

• Bank nifty also has 2 days of up-move and 3 days down.

• Last week Nifty broke the support at 15600 levels from where is bounced up and where it also had  at 20 day moving average and  previous resistance too but closed above it.

• Nifty Fibonacci 23 retracement level of 15500-15300 levels is in confluences with the previous resistance that has turned to be support now.15000 would be next level below it which had previous resistance

• Nifty 15800 levels has previous resistances and 16000 would be psychological round number and Fibonacci extension 50 support area.

• Bank Nifty fall off from the 20 moving average support and currently at 34600 level closing above FIB 23.it has 33300/33600 support levels which is in confluence with Fibonacci 38 and previous resistance. Any breaking of FIB 61 levels of 32000 could mean a major downtrend.

• Bank-nifty first resistance at 35600/35800 levels of previous resistance from where it dipped last time and above that resistance at previous swing high of 36500 and then all time levels of 37700 levels would be resistance points.

• Last week Nifty broke the support at 15600 levels from where is bounced up and where it also had  at 20 day moving average and  previous resistance too but closed above it.

• Nifty Fibonacci 23 retracement level of 15500-15300 levels is in confluences with the previous resistance that has turned to be support now.15000 would be next level below it which had previous resistance

• Nifty 15800 levels has previous resistances and 16000 would be psychological round number and Fibonacci extension 50 support area.

• Bank Nifty fall off from the 20 moving average support and currently at 34600 level closing above FIB 23.it has 33300/33600 support levels which is in confluence with Fibonacci 38 and previous resistance. Any breaking of Fib 61 levels of 32000 could mean a major downtrend.

• Bank-nifty first resistance at 35600/35800 levels of previous resistance from where it dipped last time and above that resistance at previous swing high of 36500 and then all time levels of 37700 levels would be resistance points.

• Nifty momentum still daily/weekly/monthly within bullish zones

• Nifty Momentum daily had a bearish divergence on daily chart where price is rising and momentum slowing down that pulled it down to the 15450 levels but managed to recover the momentum and take support in bull zones again.

• Nifty daily now has a bullish positive reverse divergence that could still potentially take it back to all time high on confirmation if it goes above Friday candle high.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator cross to bearish areas on daily timeframe and is rising with reasonable strength while weekly and monthly trend remain bullish.

• Bank Nifty momentum daily continues to be in sideways zone and falling. Weekly is struggling to hold the bullish area while monthly momentum is still taking support at 60 in the bullish zone.

• Bank nifty has ADX trend indicator is in bearish side and rising with strength turning upwards on daily time frame. The trend continue to be in bullish side on medium & long term timeframes with flat strength.

• Open interest data for Nifty showing a short covering while bank-nifty is showing a short buildup based on the futures contracts

• Highest options call writing for 17 june expiry is seen at 16000 with 15800 also seen having more writing while 15000 levels shows major support point for nifty with 15500 support also ahead of it.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 35000 levels while highest put writing seen at 34000  levels that could act as support for the monthly expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.01 which is mildly bullish while 0.71 for bank-nifty is not bullish.

• India VIX remain flat at very low levels of 14.8.Implied volatility is above HIV with IVP remaining 2.4 levels which is at the new volatility regime.

• IT sector is bullish with strength in momentum and trend on short/medium/long term charts. The FMCG sector was performing despite market bearishness last week.

• We discussed Metal as showing bearish momentum divergence on weekly and it  did correct well. It could take momentum 40 support and consolidate for some period.

• Auto sector bullish momentum divergence failed on daily and it dipped into sideways last week and could be back to bullishness after few weeks if the momentum does not fall into sideways on weekly.

• Pharma and Infra on short term turned sideways but medium and long term momentum is intact.

• Last week on Friday when market corrected and did the v shape recovery In the cash market. Earlier in the week itself they had sold near 2500 crore over 3-4 days. DII also turned into buying moderately after couple of days of selling last week.

• FII were buying 3100 crores is positive with June net buying from FII is 5800 crores while DII where net selling 2300 crore same month till now. They are net longs on derivatives of FII/DII have dipped bit this month so far.

• US markets had the major Fed meeting last week and outcomes jittered all markets including our to certain extend and then recovered soon enough. Both Dow and S&P showing bearish weekly candles.

• Dollar Index gained strength and showed bullish momentum o move from 90 to 92 levels last week and continue heading up resistances seen at 92.5 and 93.5 levels.
• We discussed and suggested that going long on  USD-INR currency pair was not a bad idea in last weekly analysis and it did exactly same and gained near 1.5% last week closing near 74.3 levels at a previous resistance. 

• Gold crashed more nearly 6.5% last week after it was seen consolidating earlier and currently seen back into the weekly channel from where it had done a false breakout earlier. currently at a support zone of previous resistance and close by another support zone 100 point down and consolidations could be happening for some period until momentum picks up again. Probably good time to invest in for medium term.

• If your view is mildly bearish could go for a bull put spread on nifty with strike selected at support resistance zones we discussed for this expiry could work if consolidation and not major bearish moves does not happen next week and same time if market moves up also it could of benefit.

• A 34000-35000 bank nifty strangle with hedges at break even points can give near 1:1 risk reward with the view that this index has resistance at 35K and supports near 34000 on oi and charts.

• Markets did a shake out of weak hands last week and got back into business and probably it was a healthy correction.

• Nifty will hit 16000 sooner but may be consolidating before that.

• The daily charts continue to show that it is at momentum support and a potential bullish divergence move up.

• Nifty Trend crossover to bearishness and Bank nifty falling of 20 moving average support with sideways momentum and trend is reason for a caution but indications of a consolidation ahead and not crash is what could be seen.

• Positional long trades would hold good until a clear signal of  breaking  of major support zones indicated earlier, there is no point in exiting or shorting as of now.

• Intraday even with low volatility regime for some reason is giving choppiness and furious corrections which probably part of bull run behavior.

Heading further high without Banks? : Weekly Market Analysis : June 14 2021

• Nifty made yet another (6th consecutive weeks) all time high at 15835.55 and closed with a weekly spinning top candle while the last nifty candle is a Doji indicating indecisiveness.

• Daily candle had been walking on the or close by the bands of Bollinger band with enough volatility expansion.

• Nifty did a small correction to dip to 15566 levels last week before climbing back to gain the momentum in the rally.

• There is a support seen for nifty at 15600 levels from where is bounced up and where it also had a  previous resistance too.

• Fibonacci 23 retracement level of 15430-15330 levels is in confluences with 20 day moving average and also the previous resistance that has turned to be support now for nifty.

• 16000 would be psychological round number and Fibonacci extension resistance area for nifty.

• Nifty momentum on daily/weekly/monthly is intact within bullish zones.

• Nifty Momentum on daily had a confirmed 6 bar bullish positive reverse divergence and nearly met the targets too during last 2 days of the week. However currently momentum  has a bearish divergence on daily chart where price is rising and momentum slowing down that could potentially take it back to previous dip below 15600 if it works out.

• ADX trend indicator strength is rising again and is sufficiently bullish on all timeframes be it short/medium/long term.

• Bank nifty on the contrary o nifty , had 650 point from correction before it recovered 600 of it to still closing below previous close with a bearish near hammer weekly candle patterns. Except on expiry day bank-nifty had bearish candle on all other days.

• The momentum of bank-nifty daily dipped into sideways zone. However on weekly the momentum is showing a range shift from the sideways to bearish zone if it manage to bounce up in the coming week while monthly momentum  is  still taking support at 60 in the bullish zone.

• The ADX trend indicator has crossed over to bearish side on bank-nifty daily timeframe although the strength of it is not rising. The trend continue to be in bullish side on medium and long term timeframes with flat strength.

• Bank-nifty has taken a CIP(change in polarity) bounce from previous resistance area of 34300/34600 levels which is in confluence with Fibonacci 50 and currently taken support at the 20 day moving average at 34800 levels above FIB 38 .The 33500 levels near FIB 61 and previous swing low could be support if above levels are broken next week.

• On the upside Bank-nifty has first resistance at 35800 levels from where it dipped last time and above that we have resistance at previous swing high of 36500 and then all time levels of 37700 levels would be resistance points it has to break if it rallies.

• Open interest data for nifty showing a long buildup while bank-nifty is showing a short buildup based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for 17 jun expiry is seen at 16000 and then 15800 levels both of which could be major resistance point for nifty rally. call unwinding seen for 15700 levels.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call and put writing at 35000 levels which could critical to watch on next week. Large call writing seen at 355000 levels too and supports can be seen below at 34500/34000 levels.

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.35 which is bullish while 0.73 for bank-nifty is not bullish.

• India VIX fall 7% last week to reach yet another low level of 14.48.Implied volatility is above HIV with IVP remaining 0.4 levels which is the new volatility regime.

• Currently form the futures and options data and charts and indicator it is evident that Bank-nifty continues to be bearish and not supporting the nifty up move.

• Very low volatility regime is not much in favor of option seller while any mean reversion from these levels rising up could benefit option buyers.

• The IT/Metal/Energy/Auto/Infra/FMCG/Pharma are all roaring in bullish momentum.

• Metal sector shows a weekly as well as daily momentum bearish divergence and so caution when u try to be long when it is rally and a buy on dip could be done later on. Pharma has a bearish divergence on momentum currently while Auto has momentum positive reverse divergence on daily and a momentum range shift on weekly which could make bullish moves coming days or weeks.

• .In the cash market FII were buying 3 days except large selloff on Wednesday while DII were buying except on Monday and Friday and June has net near 3000 crore buying so far is positive. They are net long on derivative too.

• US markets are positive now .Dow Jones also taking a momentum support and heading up while S&P and Nasdaq in bullish zone and heading north.

• Dollar Index gained strength and taking momentum support above 90 levels and heading up. USD-INR currency pair taken support at 73 levels with 4 green candles last week and going long on it may not be bad idea.

• Gold is consolidating after the channel breakout on weekly and is at momentum support levels and is likely to move up next week if could hold above the 20 day moving average .

• To wrap up , Selling put options at nifty 16000 levels with hedged spread positions could benefit as swing trade for next week due to fact that nifty may find it not easy to cross it with little support from bank-nifty. However if banking stock especially HDFC kind of index stocks join the party then 16000 would be very close 200 point target that could be covered on any single day gap up itself and so caution and defined risk options strategies need to be implemented. Power sector stocks like ntpc/powergrid/pfc/coalindia are all having a result week and earnings trade on option could be planned .option sellers could benefit from the volatility crush after the event.

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Bulls continues to be here : Weekend Market Analysis : June 7 2021

                                                             

• Nifty hit new all time high last Monday and then retraced couple of days but to again move even higher to make another all time high at 15734.Banknifty price action was similar but has resistance ahead before breaking all time high of February.

• The last candle on nifty is small body red candle similar to a spinning top on the top of a rally which normally is bearish but may be ruled out after the current long consolidation and breakout rally it has just begun.

• Immediate support levels are below at earlier resistance zones from where is broke out ie 15430-15330 levels and below that near 150000 levels and then50/100  moving average levels near  14800.

• A 15900 could be targeted as per FIB projections for nifty.

• Bank nifty has supports at 34300 levels and resistance are at 36500 and 37700 levels.

• Bank nifty closed with a bearish red candle after a momentum divergence on daily timeframe worked out on Friday and met the target levels.

• Nifty momentum is intact on bullish zones on all timeframes of short/medium/long term.

• Bank nifty currently has a 5 bar bullish positive reverse divergence that could take it to 35800 levels.

• Also make note that on long term monthly timeframe it has a bearish divergence that could cause correction to 30K levels if it works out along with the 100 day moving average continuing above 50 dma on daily timeframe.

• Trend indicators are strong bullish on all timeframes of nifty and trend continues to be rising and bullish for bank nifty as well.

• Nifty and Bank nifty futures data shows short build up on Friday. Nifty options open interest data shows highest resistance at 15700 followed by 16000 and 15800 levels and supports are at 15500 for the 10th June expiry.

• Bank nifty has highest call writing at 35500 followed by 36000 and 36500 levels while supports are at 34500.

• The put call ratio of nifty has dipped to 0.99 which is not very bullish while bank nifty has PCR of 0.65 indicating bearishness for the expiry.

• FII were buying last most  days of last week with good volumes is good news while DII did large selling on last day of week.

• India VIX fall 6.8% last and settled at 15.94 on Friday which is in favor of further up move.

• Implied volatility is above Historical volatility but IV percentile is lowest in recent times of 0.4 in favor of option buyers.

• Sectors of IT,Energy,Metals,Auto,Infra,Services,Midcaps are all in bullish zones.

• US market are rising after a correction and heading to bullish zones.US Dollar index has maintains 90 levels while USDINR pair also taking support at 73 levels. Gold continue to be bullish.

• To wrap up we could see that markets are in a bull run with  5 weeks of higher high and could continue doing same although it may not be doing it slowly that would mean interim corrections after making every new highs.

• So trend is clear and buy on dips is the way to go and with the volatility at lower levels directional trades using option spreads could work out well. Intraday can be played based on price action support resistance levels on options.

Bulls are here: Weekend Market Analysis : May 29 2021

• Market rallied more than 2% last week after the breakout on previous Friday and settled few points above the last previous all time high with two consecutive small body candle days indicating tough presence of both bulls and bears. Bank nifty also moved more than 2% but ended in red end of week.

• Nifty corrected around 8% in around 3.5 months from previous swing high before reaching back there last day. Bank nifty corrected nearly 20%  and yet to go back there

• Nifty which has close above all time high has Fibonacci extension projection from previous swing low indicate it an up move happen it could move up to at least 15900 levels.

• A double bottom breakout W pattern is clear visible like last week on both indices  indicating there is a good breakout potential from current levels.

• Nifty has a small gap support between last two candles could work out well if there is minor retracement before moving up further.

• 15050 is the best support downwards from where it had broken out earlier. If by any chance that is broken there is 50/100 moving average to support at 14750 levels.

• Bank nifty has not yet reached all time high which is more than 2500 point away but could face hurdles both at 36400 previous swing high levels and 37700 all time high levels before that.

• Bank nifty has support at 34300 levels from where it broke out earlier and below that it could find support near 33000-33250 levels at the moving averages and trendline channel.

• RSI momentum is on bullish zoned on all timeframes (short/medium/long term)for both indices.

• Daily timeframe(short term) is showing how a momentum range shift into bullish zones worked out well on bank nifty.

• The monthly candles(yet to close) are very bullish green long for nifty and bank nifty.

• However  could come out with a potential bearish momentum divergence on monthly candle depending on close of Monday if momentum is not moving up from current which may indicate correction up to 30400 levels but on a longer term basis  only if it works out. 

• Trend indicator ADX/DMI has turned up and rising on all timeframes for both indices indicating clear bullishness ahead.

• Futures open interest is bullish long build up on both indices.

• Open interest on nifty options shows that 15500 has higher call writing while 15300 could be good support for next expiry.

• Bank nifty open interest data shows 35500 as resistance level while 35000 has highest support level seen although a large writing is still seen there which could mean next week may see more bull bear tug of war before decisively conquering it meanwhile 34500 is immediate support below it.

• Put call ratio is bullish for nifty 1.32 but not bullish for bank nifty at 0.75

• India VIX fall more than 16% last week alone and has reach 17.4 pre-pandemic levels. This is further confirmation that bullishness may be continuing ahead. The covid case rate and sentiments has brought down VIX probably.

• Implied volatility is above historic IV levels and IVP has fallen from 70 to 0.8 low levels indicating only 0.8% of time in past year has been lower  than current IV. Currently IV is sharp falling phase  and premium \of option also may be less.

• IT,Energy,Auto,Infra are other sectors seen in the bullish zones.

• FII where buying good last week except for Thursday. 

• Dollar index has regained the 90 price level and seems reverting while USDINR trades with rupee strengthened to 72.4 levels and look like bottom may have been hit and could hover around there or revert from there. Gold continues the rally up after the trendline breakout.

• Overall market having a nice round patter with potential for a very good breakout after a fair correction and going short is out of question while the nature of  further up move could be a slow trending rather than an upright breakout to hit 16K.Therefore credit/debt directional spreads based long trades on option could give results while directional momentum breakout trades with stop loss intraday could be effective as well.

Few random useful trading tips

Few random useful trading tips

• Pledge liquid funds as collateral with certain haircut  and use it for option selling and get interest for same and avoid more cash with broker. 

• Always hedge your overnight  positions for reducing risk to a defined loss as well as get the margin advantage.

• Have backup brokers one or two so that you could take counter positions and mitigate  infrastructure outage risk. Also distribute your capital across multiple accounts . Investments in multiple laptops, collocated cloud and multiple Internet connection could save your capital during outages. 

• Always buy hedge positions before taking sell position in order to get margin benefits during execution of trades. 

• Sell covered calls for your liquid, quality investment in stocks and get regular rental income and use selling of cash secured puts to buy stocks on delivery at cheap price while increasing profits same time. 

• Trading is full time business if you want make money consistently  from it and doing it part time won't work. Better to do investing than trading if you are part time. Most of the trading  you believe could be done part time may take away most or all l of your earlier gains  when you miss to be there to adjust or get out on a day when things go wrong like your stop loss failed to work or circuit hit or surgical  strike or corona or nse exchange itself down.Hedging your positions help to certain extend but why do a business where making money consistent  is very very tough when investing is more safer . 

• Do every single  trade with fixed rules and risk reward and position size defined  and set target as small %return of investment on monthly basis with capital protection as key during initial stages before the  heavy lifting.Too much complicated strategies often may not work as they may be curve fitting or just duplicating filters. 

• Forget your expertise, conquer your FOMO and simply sit outside with no trading on major event days  Not trading itself is a trade. Also trade only if u get a full signal on your rules on other days. 

• Trading is an extension of you and the  reason why you are attracted to it  is the freedom you seek for, but without  discipline in your daily  life there can't be one in trading and it takes no time to loose many times more than what you won earlier . Therefore start investing small parallel is the  way to go in long term. 

• Physically being fit, meditation, visualisation are only ways to calm you and help you make good  decisions consistently. 

• What matters is if your profits are bigger than your  smaller losses. So learn how to let profits run and accept happy small losses.do know about expectancy, drawdown etc beforehand .

• Having multiple strategies that fits into different  market cycles  is important since all strategies won't work in all cycles. For for example have neutral positions that gives you money even when markets are sideways, while your momentum directional trades feeds you when market are trending. 

• Backtesting your trading rules either manually or programmatically helps improve your trading confidence in a volatile market and remain disciplined when faced with  drawdowns or other doubts . Automation /algo trading helps better  execution of trades and reduce mindset issues to certain extend but with the risk of bugs  and so it still need monitoring. Also same time forward test and review /journal your trades regularly. 

• You cannot ever duplicate another person's trading same way as the execution, risk management and mindset differs. So trade the way  what fits your personality like whether to  buy option or sell option or cash or options or breakout or support resistance etc etc.. Remember that if trading was only technical most of traders would have been multmblliinares by now which is very far from reality as trading is combination of technicals, psychology and risk management. So never try copy  rules  and expect it to work for you, nor keep switching or hunting for that holy grail strategy from somewhere. 
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Market Analysis BANKNIFTY FEB 10 2021 : Doji dancing

• 3 doji candlestick patterns dancing on bank nifty charts indicating indecision after an all time rally of 6600 point post budget

• Probability of Bank nifty taking gap support 35400/35500 levels and bounce back to complete the 1 hour M pattern

• Daily chart FIB retracement to bring 35000 levels but only if the gap support above is breached

• Upper side 37300 can be reached if it breaches the previous all time high 36600 levels

• Volatility expansion on daily and still waling on the bands of Bollinger 

• Huge volumes of trade even today also 

• ADX not rising and trend strength is not great though in bullish zones

• Unlike nifty bank nifty open interest is long buildup. Again Unlike nifty bank nifty Both 36000 and 37000 sees heavy call writing indicating resistance to climb up there while 35000 has highest open interest indicating bullishness overall for current expiry. PCR is also in bullish range

Market Analysis NIFTY FEB 10 2021 : Consolidation after a Rally?

•  Nifty hit the FIB extension target of 15250 ,made all time high and the reversed with heavy sell off in last one hour closing with a red small body candle closing below previous day low The pitch for top channel was hit as well.
• Gap support exist at 15015-40 levels 
• The fib retracement of last two swings a 23% support at 14850 and 14750 levels
• The upside targets could be another hit on last  pitchfork top 15300 and if that is broken coming days could rally towards 15770.
• Nifty futures data shows it is "long unwinding" where both OI and price decrease is seen which could be a slight bearish indication.
• Open interest for options data for upcoming weekly expiry has resistances seen highest resistance at 15500 and support at 15000 and PCR is bullish level of 1.11.monthly expiry large put writing seen at 14000K which may be worst fall expected while upside call writing seen at 16000 levels too..(can u believe it)
• VIX moved up more than 4% in last 3 days indicating greed fear that  could lead to volatile moves like today any time during day. IVP is 50% times fallen below during last one year current IV and is still below Historic iv  levels which may be still in favor of option buying
• FII buying continue and selling was more by DII's today.