head and shoulder formation on banking index

 #niftybank #banknifty #bankniftyoptions a head and shoulder pattern worth watching out for on weekly charts of banking index

Nifty/Banknifty candle stick patterns jun 19 2023

 #NiftyBank #nifty50 #niftyOptions #BankNiftyOptions "cup /rounding+ flag" pattern on #nifty while "cup & handle + flag " pattern seen on banking index #bankniftytrading

Technical Analysis using The Pivot Boss Wick Reversal Pattern

The Pivot Boss Wick Reversal Pattern

A trader is always on the lookout for patterns that can help you make informed decisions about when to buy and sell securities. One such pattern is the Wick Reversal Pattern, which appears on a price chart when a stock experiences a sudden change in momentum. In this blog, we'll take a closer look at the Pivot Boss Wick Reversal pattern, as identified in the Secrets of Pivot Boss book by Frank Ochoa, and provide examples of this pattern on NSE's Nifty50 index & other stock charts.

The Pivot Boss Wick Reversal Pattern

The Pivot Boss Wick Reversal pattern is a specific type of wick reversal pattern that can be used to make trading decisions. This pattern appears when a candle with a long lower wick and a small or non-existent upper wick appears on a price chart. The appearance of this pattern indicates that buyers have stepped in to drive the price higher after a period of selling pressure, suggesting that a bullish reversal may be imminent. Similarly this pattern also appears when a candle with a long upper wick and a small or non-existent lower wick appears on a price chart. The appearance of this pattern indicates that sellers have stepped in to drive the price lower after a period of buying pressure, suggesting that a bearish reversal may be imminent.

3 main parameters come into consideration while analysing a reversal wick candlestick pattern

1. Size of the body. small body size
2. Size of close percentage.  closer the closing price to the high or low of the day
3. Size of the wick. Wick length which is 2 or 3 times body qualifies  

Pin bar/hammer/inverted hammer, doji patterns , hanging man, shooting /evening star, no matter what are they called , are all different combination of wick reversal pattern.

Examples of Pivot Boss Wick Reversal Pattern on NSE's Nifty50 index chart & Tech Mahindra Stock chart

Let's take a look at a couple of examples of the Pivot Boss Wick Reversal pattern on NSE's Nifty50 charts:

Example 1:

In this chart, we can see that the Nifty50 index was in a downtrend until June 20th, 2022. On this day, a candle with a long lower wick and a small upper wick appeared, indicating a potential bullish reversal. This candle is the Pivot Boss Wick Reversal pattern. Following the appearance of the pattern, the price of Nifty50 index started moving upwards, and a bullish trend was established. This trend lasted for several weeks, allowing traders who identified the Pivot Boss Wick Reversal pattern to profit from the uptrend.

Example 2: 

In this chart, we can see that the Tech Mahindra : NSE  was in a uptrend until Feb 24, 2020. On this day, a candle with a long upper wick and a small lower wick appeared, indicating a potential bearish reversal. This candle is the Pivot Boss Wick Reversal pattern. Following the appearance of the pattern, the price of Tech Mahindra : NSE started moving downwards, and a bearish trend was established. This trend lasted for several weeks, allowing traders who identified the Pivot Boss Wick Reversal pattern to profit from the downtrend.

Example 3:

In this chart, we can see that the Nifty50 index was in a downtrend until July 28 th, 2020. On this day, a candle with a long lower wick and a small upper wick appeared, indicating a potential bullish reversal. This candle is the Pivot Boss Wick Reversal pattern. Following the appearance of the pattern, the price of Nifty50 index started moving upwards, and a bullish trend was established. This trend lasted for several weeks, allowing traders who identified the Pivot Boss Wick Reversal pattern to profit from the uptrend.

Conclusion

The Pivot Boss Wick Reversal pattern is a powerful tool for traders who are looking to identify potential bullish reversals in a security. By using this pattern, traders can make informed decisions about when to buy or sell a stock and take advantage of potential uptrends or downtrends. If you're interested in learning more about this pattern, we recommend checking out the Secrets of Pivot Boss book by Frank Ochoa. With a bit of practice and experience, you'll be able to identify the Pivot Boss Wick Reversal pattern and use it to your advantage in your trading.

United Spirits cup & handle breakout

 #unitedspirits cup & handle breakout on weekly charts with rising momentum & trend indicators in medium term bull zones giving potential long swing trade opportunities ahead

RANGE BOUND MOVE TRAP BULLS. PAUSE AHEAD OF NEW HIGH?: Daily Stock Market Analysis : Nov 15 2022

 #NIFTY #BANKNIFTY  #STOCKMARKETANALYSIS #TECHNICALANALYSIS #STOCKMARKETREVIEW #PREMARKETANALYSIS

RANGE BOUND MOVE TRAP BULLS. PAUSE AHEAD OF NEW HIGH?: Daily  Stock Market Analysis : Nov 15 2022

Youtube :  https://youtu.be/YURfMEA8CoM

INDEX GAPS UP AGAIN WHILE BANKS ARE TAKING IT SLOW ? Daily Stock Market Analysis : Nov 02 2022

 #NIFTY #BANKNIFTY  #STOCKMARKETANALYSIS #TECHNICALANALYSIS #STOCKMARKETREVIEW #PREMARKETANALYSIS

INDEX GAPS UP AGAIN WHILE BANKS ARE TAKING IT SLOW ? Daily  Stock Market Analysis : Nov 02 2022

Youtube :    https://youtu.be/vzt_i_WMY_U

ATH levels are back again. Has it run too much too fast? : Weekly Technical Market Analysis : Aug 9 2021

 

• Weekly wide range bullish green breakout candle on Nifty & nearly 5% move wide range green candle  for  Bank Nifty.

• Nifty broke out from a 7-8 week long consolidation making near 3% up move and retraced 0.8%  later while Bank nifty did made big moves and later retraced nearly 1,5% of it.

• Latest nifty daily candle has 3 inside bars forming kind of consolidation triangle pattern that may be indicating further up move while bank nifty latest candle is also inside candle and  kind of small body red candle looks almost like spinning top  both is not on the top of rally but during retracement.

• Nifty has the volatility expansion  while Bank nifty continue the Bollinger band volatility contraction and yet to break out.

• Nifty broke out of the  resistances faced earlier at 15850/15950 along with the rounding number psychological level of 16000 and made new ATH near 16350

• Previous resistances and swing low levels of  15850-15950 & 15500 - 15650 will now act as  support zone and then 15250-15400 levels below also could act as support levels  and 15000 level is seen if that is broken.

• Bank nifty is taking support at previous support zone of 35650-35850 with below supports at 34400-34700 and resistances above are 36000/36500 and has further  previous resistances to clear 36500/37700

• Nifty RSI momentum shifted into bullish zones from sideways. The medium to long term momentum is intact in bullish area.

• The bullish momentum positive reverse divergence identified last week worked and moved the market up and continue in place..

• Bank Nifty momentum daily entered bullish zones but sipped back slightly into sideways during retracement and weekly got into bull zones  while monthly  momentum  maintains to be in bullish zones.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator trend is bullish and rising and with strength  picking up on daily but maintain trend bullishness on weekly and monthly timeframes.

• Bank nifty ADX trend indicator now showing rising strength in the bullish zone of trend on daily timeframes and weekly crossed over to bullish trend and monthly maintain the bullish trend as well.

• Open interest data for Nifty & Bank nifty showing a short buildup based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for 12 Aug expiry is seen at 16300 with 16400 also seen having more writing while 15500  levels shows highest support point for nifty with 16000 support is close by.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 36000 levels while highest put writing seen at 35000  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.1 which is bullish while 0.83  for bank-nifty is  not bullish.

• India VIX  move up ~7% but  slipped ~8%  and settle at 12.6 and continue to be low levels last week after a spike.

• The Nifty IV 11.7 is above HIV 9.3  and  IVP remaining 3  levels which is at the low volatility regime. 

• IT sector index moved up ~4% last week and the bearish divergence seen weekly can not be negated. Therefore need slightly caution even though it is bullish. Dollar strength could be behind the bullishness.

• FMCG moved up ~2.5%  last week and gave up some if it later. Now there is a momentum bearish divergence on weekly  and therefore need cautiously wait for the momentum catch up again.

• Metal moved further more than 2% but has a indecisive doji in index. It had as anticipated the  bullish positive reverse divergence worked well and index shot up 10% previous week doing a clear breakout. Now a bearish momentum exit in the up move but could be cautiously bullish.

• Auto sector moved up 3.5% and later gave up 1% of it last week and continue consolidating  on daily for a potential up move breakout.

• Pharma Earlier after the anticipated weekly bearish momentum divergence that worked previous week to bring a correction of 6% as target and ,Now last week the  weekly bullish momentum reverse divergence could be working although a indecisive doji is seen on weekly but could take it back to further up move if divergence works.

• Last week FII bought > 2600 cr in cash.

• DII bought 896 cr last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII moved up last week.

• US markets formed bullish green candles weekly candle on all major indices.

• Dollar Index strengthened to near 1% or more at neckline resistance zone of W breakout pattern seen.

• Crude Oil dipped  near 6.5% last week which could be positive for economy.

• USD-INR currency pair was red forming second  spinning top candle on weekly falling below the previous support zone and  could now be dipping further to channel top side next week

• Gold corrected nearly 4% and taken support on previous price last week and could continue bullishness heading to the channel top but with slow momentum.

• India VIX continue at  low 12.6 levels and any spike could benefit vega positive strategies on options like double calendar.

• Therefore Nifty calendar spreads hedged is always bad idea for coming week due to v shape moves often.

• Markets broke out from consolidation and made big moves and all time highs although bank nifty continue to not have entered the volatility expansion.

• Overall bias is bullish on momentum and trend with possible consolidation near for some days since it did gained quite a lot in short span and should wait for further break out of bank nifty. 

• India vix are at difficult low volatile levels for option traders both buyers and sellers and non directional trades are only to be thought. Will there be immediate mean reversion spike or will it remain at this for long is uncertain.

• Positional long trades now can trail the stop loss to new support levels and could hold good until a clear signal of  breaking  of major support zones indicated earlier.

How far really is 16000? Weekly Market Analysis : July 26 2021

 

• Weekly bullish hammer candle on Nifty &  indecisive “doji” for  Bank Nifty.

• Nifty had a V shape movement last week fall 2.4% from top and recovered most of it while Bank-nifty did the same falling 4.5% but could not recover much of it(2%).

• Latest nifty daily candle is an indecisive doji while bank-nifty latest candle is bullish kind of hammer.

• Nifty & Bank nifty both continue the Bollinger band volatility contraction within the narrow range.

• Nifty once again facing resistances faced earlier at 15850/15950 along with the rounding number psychological level of 16000.

• Previous swing low levels of  15500 - 15650 is support zone and then 15250-15400 levels below also could act as support levels  and 15000 level is seen if that is broken.

• Bank-nifty facing resistance at 35000 and has 3 previous resistances to clear 36500/37700 and has 34300-34650 levels as next supports below.

• Nifty RSI momentum gave  up previous week bullishness and is back in sideways zones. However the medium to long term momentum is intact in bullish area,

• Nifty weekly bearish momentum divergence that could pull it back to 15450 levels is still work in progress halfway targets.

• Bank Nifty momentum daily gave up momentum gains of previous week and went sideways  current week and weekly momentum also  has slipped slightly into sideways zone . monthly momentum  maintains to be in bullish zones.

• Nifty & Bank Nifty ADX trend indicator gave up bullish trend of last week and has crossed over to bear zones areas on daily but maintain trend bullishness on weekly and monthly timeframes

• Open interest data for Nifty showing a long buildup and Bank-nifty showing short covering based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for 01 July expiry is seen at 16000 with 15900 also seen having more writing while 15000  levels shows highest support point for nifty with 15800 support is close-by.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 35000 levels while highest put writing seen at 35000/34500  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.01 which is bullish while 0.94  for bank-nifty is not bearish.

• India VIX  moves 5%  and continue settle at 11.7 historic low levels last week.

• The Nifty IV 12.1 is above HIV 9.2  and  IVP remaining 0.4  levels 

• IT sector index showing a gravestone doji on daily top and the bearish divergence seen weekly can not be negated. Therefore need caution even though it is bullish. 

• FMCG is consolidating sideways last week forming a weekly doji and at  previous resistance zone and therefore need wait for the momentum catch up.

• Metal has the bullish positive reverse divergence seem to be working and market ended indecisive doji last week. Momentum on daily is slipped back to sideways from previous week bullish zones and need wait for momentum to get back.

• Auto sector continue to be bearish with double top patterns forming on daily and weekly and momentum on dail in bearish zones.

• Pharma forming a small body green candle and is bullish on all timeframes now but weekly has a bearish momentum divergence that could pull it back a bit on weekly basis.

• Last week FII sold> 5400 cr in cash.

• DII bought 5050 cr last that kept the market up last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII slipped down last week

• US markets recovered from a panic fall previous week and is green and moving up again this week.

• Dollar Index further strengthened at a major resistance zone.W breakout pattern seen.

• Crude Oil fall near 9% and later rebounded recovered most of it.

•  USD-INR currency pair fall near 1% from top and  could consolidate ot reattempt to channel top resistance again next week

•  Gold correct neat 2% last week and could continue bullishness heading to the channel top but with slow momentum.

• India VIX has fallen to lowest 11.7 levels and any spike could benefit vega positive strategies on options like double calendar.

• Therefore Nifty calendar spreads hedged is always bad idea for coming week due to v shape moves often.

• Markets fall &  bounced back once again from the support zones but momentum continue sideways and trend bearish and Bollinger band indicate that 1 month long consolidation continue with not yet breaking out on either side. 

• Trend overall bias is slight bullish with caution since weekly bearish divergence and FII selling concern.

• India vix are at difficult low volatile levels for option traders both buyers and sellers and non directional trades are only to be thought. Will there be immediate mean reversion spike or will it remain at this for long is uncertain.

• Positional long trades would hold good until a clear signal of  breaking  of major support zones indicated earlier, there is no point in exiting or shorting as of now.

Will the breakout sustain?: Weekly Market Technical Analysis : July 19 2021

 

• Weekly bullish candle on Nifty & Bank Nifty.

• Nifty has 5 higher high candle formation entire last week.

• Nifty & Bank Nifty broke out from previous resistance zone. Bank nifty broke out of a inverse head & shoulder neckline.

• Latest nifty daily candle hammer-on uptrend at resistance

• Bank nifty has a open=high candle pattern on daily bearish

• Nifty & Bank nifty both shows beginning of Bollinger band volatility expansion from earlier narrow range.

• Nifty nearer to a rounding number psychological level of 16000 and resistances can be expected.

• Earlie resistances now could act as support and levels of  15750 - 15900 are support zone and then 15500-15600 levels below acting good previous swing low supports and 15000 level are seen if that is broken

• Bank nifty has 3 previous resistances to clear 36500/37700 and has 34300-34650 levels as next supports below.

• Nifty RSI momentum climbed to bullish zones last week and retains it. Also the medium to long term momentum is intact in bullish area,

• Nifty weekly has a bearish momentum divergence that could pull it back to 15450 levels if it works out.

• Bank Nifty momentum daily climbed into bullishness but could not sustain it and slipped slightly back into sideways zone on  daily  .Weekly and monthly momentum  maintains to be in bullish zones.

• Nifty & Bank Nifty ADX trend indicator are in  bullish areas on daily, weekly and monthly timeframes

• Open interest data for Nifty showing a long unwinding and Bank nifty showing short buildup based on the futures contracts which is bearish.

• Highest options call writing for 01 july expiry is seen at 16200 with 16000 also seen having more writing while 15900  levels shows highest  support point for nifty with 15800 support is close by.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 36000 levels while highest put writing seen at 35500  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.03 which is bullish while 0.71  for bank-nifty is not bullish.

• India VIX  fall more than 20%  to historic lowest levels of 10.5  and settled at 11.7 last week.

• The Nifty IV 11.6 is above HIV 6.9  and  IVP remaining 2  levels which is at the new low volatility regime. 

• IT sector corrected more than 2% and later gave up some of it  but bearish divergence seen weekly can not be negated. 

• FMCG is consolidating sideways last week forming a weekly doji and at  previous resistance zone and therefore need wait for the momentum catch up.

• Metal has the bullish positive reverse divergence seem to be working and market ended green last week. Momentum on daily is now in bullish zones and could expect a breakout.

• Auto sector formed a bearish inside bar and consolidating on daily and weekly and may take time to turn bullish again.

• Pharma moved up 2.5% last week and broke out into an all time high levels. but weekly has a bearish momentum divergence that could pull it back a bit on weekly basis. sector is bullish on all timeframes.

• Last week FII sold> 2500 cr in cash.

• DII bought 3200 cr last that kept the market up last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII moved up last week.

• India VIX has fallen to lowest 11.4 levels and any spike could benefit Vega positive strategies on options like double calendar.

• Therefore Nifty calendar spreads hedged is always bad idea for coming week due to v shape moves often.

• Markets broke out from major resistance zone but lost momentum end of week and Bollinger band started expanding while bank nifty need catch up with resistances, with the improved momentum and trend overall bias is bullish with caution since weekly bearish divergence and FII selling concern.

• India vix are at difficult low volatile levels for option traders both buyers and sellers and non directional trades are only to be thought of. Will there be immediate mean reversion spike or will it remain at this for long is uncertain.

• Positional long trades would hold good until a clear signal of  breaking  of major support zones indicated earlier, there is no point in exiting or shorting as of now.

Correction or Consolidation? : Weekly Technical Analysis : July 12 2021

 

• Weekly bearish spinning top candle on Nifty & gravestone Doji candle Bank Nifty.

• Nifty & Bank nifty shows a inverted V shape  ie moving up and then reversing last week on daily.

• Nifty& Bank nifty reversed from previous resistance zone.

• Nifty at a major previous swing low support zone and both indices at channel bottom.

• Latest nifty daily candle Doji-shows indecisiveness, 

• Bank nifty has a hammer  candle pattern on daily potential reversal up.

• Nifty & Bank nifty both has Bollinger band squeeze into narrow range and showing clear volatility contraction /consolidation.

• Nifty once again failed to conquer previous resistances tested tested multiple times of 15900 near an all  time high and rounding number psychological level of 16000 close by.

• It immediate support at  15600 and then 15500 levels below acting good previous swing low supports and 15000 level are seen if that is broken

• Bank nifty has 3 previous resistances to clear/35800/37700/36500 and has 34000-34500 levels as next supports below.

• Nifty RSI momentum has fallen further down and remain in sideways zone on  daily. However medium to long term momentum is intact in bullish area,

• Nifty daily both  bullish positive reverse divergences failed.

• Bank Nifty momentum daily continues to be in sideways zone and falling  .Weekly and monthly momentum  maintains to be in bullish zones.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator continue in  bearish areas on daily timeframe with flat strength while weekly and monthly trend remain bullish with flat strength 

• Bank nifty has ADX trend indicator crossed over back to bearish  zones  on daily timeframe. The trend continue to be in bullish side on medium & long term timeframes with flat strength.

• Open interest data for Nifty showing a long unwinding and Bank nifty showing short buildup based on the futures contracts which is bearish.

• Highest options call writing for 01 July expiry is seen at 16000 with 15800/15700 also seen having more writing while 15600  levels shows highest  support point for nifty with 15500/15000 support is close by.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 36000 levels while highest put writing seen at 35000  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 0.66  which is not bullish while 0.74  for bank-nifty also is not bullish.

• India VIX  fall near 20%  to historic lowest levels of 11.1 and settled at 12/9 last week.

• The Nifty IV 12.8 is above HIV 7.4  and  IVP remaining 3.1  levels which is at the new low volatility regime. 

• IT sector corrected near 3% but continue with bullish divergence seen weekly with strength in momentum and trend on short/medium/long term charts. 

• FMCG also corrected 1% but continue bullish with momentum bullish divergence seen weekly and could regain momentum to move further up slightly dipped on short term momentum as of now.

• Metal did ok last week but still sideways on short term but medium to long term is bullish and so need wait till momentum pickup and breakout. Currently consolidating.

• Auto sector corrected 4% and lost momentum it gained last week and now is sideways in short / medium term and bullish only on long term.

• Pharma correct 2.5% last week and slipped back to sideways on daily but higher time frames are bullish and could breakout as discussed previous weeks

• Last week FII sold> 2000 crore in cash.

• DII also turned sellers last week after 14 days continuously in cash and sold all bought last week.

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII had dipped.

• US markets ended green last week and show hammer pattern on weekly indicating further up move.

• Dollar Index at resistance inverse happen up 92.1 level.

•  USD-INR currency pair at resistance near channel top a Doji on weekly but bullish divergence on weekly.

• Gold continue bullishness and at channel top but with slow momentum and any further moves could make it bullish.

• India VIX has fallen to lowest 12.9 levels and seems to remain at these at least for next week where iron condor weekly may be applied with view that 15900 remain resistance and 15500 may not break for now.

• Therefore Nifty calendar spreads hedged is not bad idea for coming week.

• Markets narrow range bound and at neckline support zone with uncertainty as to how long it could consolidate here and which side it would break down. Therefore trade with caution.

• India vix are at difficult low volatile levels for option traders both buyers and sellers and non directional trades are only to be thought. Will there be immediate mean reversion spike or will it remain at this for long is uncertain.

• Momentum  is sideways and Trend is bearish for short term on both indices and bias is negative.

• Positional long trades would hold good until a clear signal of  breaking  of major support zones indicated earlier, there is no point in exiting or shorting as of now.

Narrow Range Market :Weekly Market Analysis : July 5 2021

 

• False breakout weekly bearish candle on both Nifty & Bank Nifty.

• Nifty & Bank nifty shows a trending down move entire week on 1 hr charts and given up 20 day moving average support.

• Nifty weekly bearish candle open=high pattern.June month shows a spinning top small body.

• Nifty & Bank nifty seen taken support at previous swing lows.

• Latest nifty daily candle hammer-could be slightly bullish, 

• Bank nifty has a spinning top  candle pattern on daily and June month also has a bearish candle.

• Nifty & Bank nifty both has Bollinger band squeeze into narrow range and showing clear volatility contraction /consolidation.

• Nifty at major resistance confluence of previous resistances tested 5 times and near an all  time high 15915 and rounding number psychological level of 16000 close by.

• It immediate support at  15600 and then 15500 levels below acting good previous swing low supports and 15000 level are seen if that is broken.

• Bank nifty has 3 previous resistances to clear 37700/36500/35800/35300 and currently take  support near 34600-34800 levels and has 34000 as next support below

• Nifty RSI momentum has fallen off from bullish into into sideways zone and seen falling on  daily.However medium to long term momentum is intact in bullish area,

• Nifty daily both  bullish positive reverse divergences failed.

• Bank Nifty momentum daily continues to be in sideways zone and bent up  .Weekly momentum also seems to be slipping into sideways while monthly momentum  maintains to be in bullish zones.

• The bearish monthly momentum divergence seems to have worked out and pulled down bank nifty in June.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator continue in  bearish areas on daily timeframe with flat strength while weekly and monthly trend remain bullish with flat strength.

• Bank nifty has ADX trend indicator last week crossed over back to bearish  zones  on daily timeframe. The trend continue to be in bullish side on medium & long term timeframes with flat strength.

• Open interest data for Nifty and Bank nifty showing a short covering based on the futures contracts which is bullish.

• Highest options call writing for 08 July expiry is seen at 16000 with 15800 also seen having more writing while 15700  levels shows highest  support point for nifty with 15600/15500 support is close by.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 35000 levels while highest put writing seen at 34500  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 0.8  which is not bullish while 0.79  for bank-nifty also is not bullish enough.

• India VIX  fall to historic lowest levels of 12.1 which is more than 10% fall further.

• The IV is above HIV 11.5 and  IVP remaining 0.4  levels which is at the new low volatility regime. 

• IT sector is bullish with strength in momentum and trend on short/medium/long term charts. All time high ending with doji

• FMCG is bullish with momentum bullish divergence seen and could regain momentum to move further up.

• Metal is sideways on short term and need wait till momentum pickup.

• Auto sector weekly momentum range shifted and could move up in short term and need wait or some more momentum catchup.

• Pharma has now turned bullish last will with breakout as discussed previous week

• Last week FII sold>  5000 cr in cash did almost no buying net June month.

• Thanks to DII who bought all of last 12 day continuously in cash and June month had buying > 7000 cr that helps market form not crashing.

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII had dipped.

• US markets are bullish 

• Dollar Index rising up 92 level.

•  USD-INR currency pair broke out of at resistance zone and hit 75 levels but daily gravestone Doji show bearish pressure as well.

• Gold showing a hammer weekly candle and last week seen to be moving up from the support zone and probably good time to invest in for medium term.

• India VIX has fallen to lowest 12 levels and it could mean revert and therefore vega positive option strategies like calendar spread would be applied to benefit on it. 

• Therefore Nifty calendar spreads hedged is not bad idea for coming week.

• Markets at a narrow range bound phase and there is uncertainty as to how long it could consolidate here and also which side it would break down.Therefore trade with caution.

• India vix are at difficult low volatile levels for option traders both buyers and sellers and non directional trades are only to be thought.

• Momentum  is sideways and Trend is bearish for short term on both indices and bias is negative.

• Positional long trades would hold good until a clear signal of  breaking  of major support zones indicated earlier, there is no point in exiting or shorting as of now.

Was it just a shake out ?Weekly Market Analysis :June 21 2021

 

• A bearish candle after 5 continuous bullish weeks ,still made another higher high and all time high.

• Weekly spinning top candle is bearish

• Latest Daily candle hammer-could be slightly bullish on confirmation since during a small downtrend. 

• Nifty -moved up 2 days and did 3 days of 450 point correction with a harsh one on Friday to dip it to 15450 support levels last week before recovering back some of the momentum and settling to close to 15683.

• Bank nifty 15o0 point correction before it recovered 650 of it to still closing below previous close 

• Bank nifty has a spinning top bearish candle pattern

• Bank nifty also has 2 days of up-move and 3 days down.

• Last week Nifty broke the support at 15600 levels from where is bounced up and where it also had  at 20 day moving average and  previous resistance too but closed above it.

• Nifty Fibonacci 23 retracement level of 15500-15300 levels is in confluences with the previous resistance that has turned to be support now.15000 would be next level below it which had previous resistance

• Nifty 15800 levels has previous resistances and 16000 would be psychological round number and Fibonacci extension 50 support area.

• Bank Nifty fall off from the 20 moving average support and currently at 34600 level closing above FIB 23.it has 33300/33600 support levels which is in confluence with Fibonacci 38 and previous resistance. Any breaking of FIB 61 levels of 32000 could mean a major downtrend.

• Bank-nifty first resistance at 35600/35800 levels of previous resistance from where it dipped last time and above that resistance at previous swing high of 36500 and then all time levels of 37700 levels would be resistance points.

• Last week Nifty broke the support at 15600 levels from where is bounced up and where it also had  at 20 day moving average and  previous resistance too but closed above it.

• Nifty Fibonacci 23 retracement level of 15500-15300 levels is in confluences with the previous resistance that has turned to be support now.15000 would be next level below it which had previous resistance

• Nifty 15800 levels has previous resistances and 16000 would be psychological round number and Fibonacci extension 50 support area.

• Bank Nifty fall off from the 20 moving average support and currently at 34600 level closing above FIB 23.it has 33300/33600 support levels which is in confluence with Fibonacci 38 and previous resistance. Any breaking of Fib 61 levels of 32000 could mean a major downtrend.

• Bank-nifty first resistance at 35600/35800 levels of previous resistance from where it dipped last time and above that resistance at previous swing high of 36500 and then all time levels of 37700 levels would be resistance points.

• Nifty momentum still daily/weekly/monthly within bullish zones

• Nifty Momentum daily had a bearish divergence on daily chart where price is rising and momentum slowing down that pulled it down to the 15450 levels but managed to recover the momentum and take support in bull zones again.

• Nifty daily now has a bullish positive reverse divergence that could still potentially take it back to all time high on confirmation if it goes above Friday candle high.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator cross to bearish areas on daily timeframe and is rising with reasonable strength while weekly and monthly trend remain bullish.

• Bank Nifty momentum daily continues to be in sideways zone and falling. Weekly is struggling to hold the bullish area while monthly momentum is still taking support at 60 in the bullish zone.

• Bank nifty has ADX trend indicator is in bearish side and rising with strength turning upwards on daily time frame. The trend continue to be in bullish side on medium & long term timeframes with flat strength.

• Open interest data for Nifty showing a short covering while bank-nifty is showing a short buildup based on the futures contracts

• Highest options call writing for 17 june expiry is seen at 16000 with 15800 also seen having more writing while 15000 levels shows major support point for nifty with 15500 support also ahead of it.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 35000 levels while highest put writing seen at 34000  levels that could act as support for the monthly expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.01 which is mildly bullish while 0.71 for bank-nifty is not bullish.

• India VIX remain flat at very low levels of 14.8.Implied volatility is above HIV with IVP remaining 2.4 levels which is at the new volatility regime.

• IT sector is bullish with strength in momentum and trend on short/medium/long term charts. The FMCG sector was performing despite market bearishness last week.

• We discussed Metal as showing bearish momentum divergence on weekly and it  did correct well. It could take momentum 40 support and consolidate for some period.

• Auto sector bullish momentum divergence failed on daily and it dipped into sideways last week and could be back to bullishness after few weeks if the momentum does not fall into sideways on weekly.

• Pharma and Infra on short term turned sideways but medium and long term momentum is intact.

• Last week on Friday when market corrected and did the v shape recovery In the cash market. Earlier in the week itself they had sold near 2500 crore over 3-4 days. DII also turned into buying moderately after couple of days of selling last week.

• FII were buying 3100 crores is positive with June net buying from FII is 5800 crores while DII where net selling 2300 crore same month till now. They are net longs on derivatives of FII/DII have dipped bit this month so far.

• US markets had the major Fed meeting last week and outcomes jittered all markets including our to certain extend and then recovered soon enough. Both Dow and S&P showing bearish weekly candles.

• Dollar Index gained strength and showed bullish momentum o move from 90 to 92 levels last week and continue heading up resistances seen at 92.5 and 93.5 levels.
• We discussed and suggested that going long on  USD-INR currency pair was not a bad idea in last weekly analysis and it did exactly same and gained near 1.5% last week closing near 74.3 levels at a previous resistance. 

• Gold crashed more nearly 6.5% last week after it was seen consolidating earlier and currently seen back into the weekly channel from where it had done a false breakout earlier. currently at a support zone of previous resistance and close by another support zone 100 point down and consolidations could be happening for some period until momentum picks up again. Probably good time to invest in for medium term.

• If your view is mildly bearish could go for a bull put spread on nifty with strike selected at support resistance zones we discussed for this expiry could work if consolidation and not major bearish moves does not happen next week and same time if market moves up also it could of benefit.

• A 34000-35000 bank nifty strangle with hedges at break even points can give near 1:1 risk reward with the view that this index has resistance at 35K and supports near 34000 on oi and charts.

• Markets did a shake out of weak hands last week and got back into business and probably it was a healthy correction.

• Nifty will hit 16000 sooner but may be consolidating before that.

• The daily charts continue to show that it is at momentum support and a potential bullish divergence move up.

• Nifty Trend crossover to bearishness and Bank nifty falling of 20 moving average support with sideways momentum and trend is reason for a caution but indications of a consolidation ahead and not crash is what could be seen.

• Positional long trades would hold good until a clear signal of  breaking  of major support zones indicated earlier, there is no point in exiting or shorting as of now.

• Intraday even with low volatility regime for some reason is giving choppiness and furious corrections which probably part of bull run behavior.