Nifty 50: A Volatile Ride (April–June 2025) — Technical and Fundamental Insights

Nifty 50: A Volatile Ride (April–June 2025) — Technical and Fundamental Insights

The Indian equity market, led by the Nifty 50, has experienced a roller-coaster journey over the last three months. From domestic policy moves to global geopolitical shocks, this period has seen heightened volatility, sectoral rotations, and institutional tug-of-war between FIIs and DIIs.

This post analyzes the market using technical chart patterns and fundamental drivers, including fresh cues from the RBI, U.S. policy threats, and macro data.

1. Nifty 50 Performance Snapshot (April to June 2025)

• Opening on April 1: ~22,350
• Closing on June 18: 24,812.05
• Gain: +11.1%
• High: ~25,170 (mid-June)
• Low: ~21,950 (early April)

2. Market Volatility (India VIX)

• Range: 13.1 to 19.2
• Peak: May 27
• Average: ~15.9

Volatility Triggers:

• Trump-era tariff threats on Indian exports (late April)
• India–Pakistan border escalation (mid-May)
• Israel–Iran conflict tensions (late May)

Volatility eased in June as diplomatic talks cooled each flashpoint.

3. Technical Analysis Overview

A. Daily Chart Highlights

• Support: 24,500 and 24,300
• Resistance: 25,000–25,170
• RSI: 52–68 (bullish momentum)
• MACD: Positive crossover (May), flattening in June
• Candle Patterns: Ascending triangle breakout (May), Bearish Engulfing (June 18)

B. Weekly Chart Patterns

• Bullish Engulfing: Week ending May 16 — validated breakout
• Doji: Week ending June 6 — signaled indecision
• Hammer: Week ending June 13 — rebound from 24,700
• Patterns: Rising Wedge (Apr–May), Head & Shoulders base (May–June)
• 20-week MA: Acting as strong support (~23,900)
• Volume: Surged during breakouts, dropped during consolidation

4. Sectoral Leadership

Sector	Highlights
Auto & FMCG	Driven by rural demand and strong Q4 earnings
Private Banks	Benefited from margin expansion and loan growth
IT	Stabilizing after April dip; cautious due to U.S. tariff risk
Pharma	Pressured by U.S. pricing constraints
Oil & Gas	Volatile in line with Brent price swings

5. Institutional Fund Flows

Month	FII Net (₹ Cr)	DII Net (₹ Cr)
April	+4,223	+28,228
May	+18,620	+67,642
June (till 13th)	-4,892	+44,000

Trend: FIIs turned cautious in June; DIIs provided strong support across the quarter.

6. Global & Domestic Macro Cues

RBI Rate Cut

On June 6, the RBI cut the repo rate by 50 bps to 5.75%, citing inflation comfort and global monetary easing.

Impact: Boosted bank stocks, realty, and consumer sentiment.

India's Economic Strength

• Q4 FY24 GDP: 6.8% YoY — stronger than expected
• Forex Reserves: ~$610 billion
• Fiscal Deficit: Tracking near 5.8% of GDP
• PMI: Services at 58.2 in May; Manufacturing holding above 55

Crude Oil

Range: $61.6 – $77.8 per barrel
Low in April, peaking mid-June on West Asia tensions.

U.S. Tariff Threats

Tariff warnings on Indian steel, agri, and IT sectors spooked the market in late April.

• Metals & IT faced selling on concerns over margin pressure
• Agri exporters saw short-term disruption
• Investors turned selective in export-oriented names

Watch: A confirmed tariff move may reignite volatility and sector rotation.

7. Market Outlook (Q3 2025)

Scenario	Outlook
Bullish	Upside to 25,500 if DIIs and macros stay supportive
Neutral	Rangebound between 24,500 – 25,200; consolidation expected
Bearish	Drop below 24,300 may invite broader profit booking

Watchlist Events:

• Monsoon progress and food inflation trends
• U.S. Fed commentary and tariff developments
• Crude oil movement and geopolitical risks

Conclusion

The Nifty 50’s 11% rally from April to June reflects strong economic momentum, DII support, and confidence in India’s structural growth. While geopolitical risks and U.S. tariffs warrant caution, domestic cues remain broadly favorable. Stay alert near key levels (24,650–25,000) and remain sector selective.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.