Crash or Consolidate : Market Analysis: April 26 2021

 

• 3rd weekly doji candle in a row forming a lower low lower high.

• Weekly timeframe lost its momentum and fallen into sideways zone joining daily which has been consolidating sideways since feb 19th. 

• While ADX trend seen rising on daily on the bearish side , on weekly although the trend is bearish the ADX is not  rising yet and is with little strength. Monthly is the remaining timeframe with both momentum and trend continuing to be bullish.

• So market still thinks long term bullish and very short term bearish.

• Last week market fall off from 100 day moving average support also.

• Two window gap pattern on the upside 14385-14560 levels and  14652-14785 and clearing both of these coming week may not easy task.14825 50 day moving average also exit just above it.

• 13600 is the next swing low support level and below tat 13130 if it looses grip. A major crash due too any pandemic sentiment also could find support at 12000 levels worst case.

• April expiry options open interest has good support at 14000 and major resistance only at 15000 although 1% short buildup was seen on nifty futures.

• Bank nifty futures show long unwinding meaning price falling and open interest also falling.The options open interest has support at 29000 and resistnce at 33000 for April expiry. 

• Bank nifty has support near 29000  levels.it has fallen off long back from both 50 and 100 day moving average.

• Bank nifty Momentum climbed back to sideways zone last week after a falloff into bearish zones the previous week

• However Bollinger bands continues very clearly showing a intense bearishness on the bank index than the nifty. In-fact even  monthly timeframe has momentum slipped down from bullish zones unlike nifty. Daily ADX has taken a  turn which could be indicating of temporary stop of bearishness.

• FII's where sellers last 4 days continuous but DII's where buying.

• India Vix went above 23 levels last week and same volatility could continue coming week as well with market under fear grip. 

• Market could also consolidate and remain the 14000 to 14800 levels and try to remain in the trendline channel and not make any crash like last march since possibilities of tackling pandemic crisis are more this time around comparatively.

• Therefore It is not wise to take both bullish or bearish trading swing positions at this stage of uncertainty .However intraday positions could be take considering the support and resistance level mentioned above.