Consolidation to continue or banknifty to drag it down : Market Analysis April 12 2021

 

• Nifty ended with weekly Doji candle with indecisiveness.
• A positive reverse divergence continue to be valid that could still take market up to previous high.

• Bollinger band showing consolidation on nifty and taken support on 50 day moving average.

• Trend analysis of ADX show bearishness on daily but strength of same is moving down while Monthly trend is still bullish.

• Weekly monthly timeframe rsi momentum is intact in bullish zones.

• Open interest futures and option showing bearishness for April 15 expiry. Options data is showing highest resistance at 15500 as well as 15000 more or less equal while the supports are seen at 14500 and 13500 more or less equal. immediate levels could be on between 14500 and 15000.

• Put call ratio of 1.28 is bullish

• Banknifty has a bullish momentum divergence on daily and also a positive reverse divergence on weekly both indicating an up move.

• Bollinger band shows clear bearishness below the 50 day moving average unlike nifty.

• Trend analysis of ADX show bearishness on daily and the strength of same is rising up unlike nifty.

• Weekly/monthly timeframe rsi momentum has broken away towards the sideways zone unlike nifty.

• Monthly trend is still bullish on bank nifty.

• Open interest futures and option showing bearishness on bank nifty. immediate levels could be on between 30000 and 33000 for April 15 expiry.

• Put call ratio of 1.28 is not bullish unlike nifty.

• India VIX fall 2.6% on Friday closing below 20 levels indicating cooling of choppiness and fear since last few days.

• FII's  were net seller mostly last week which is cause of concern.

• IT companies declaring results next week could bring in cheer but only if results are good since most of these stock are at high levels.

• Overall momentum indications give a probability of rebound from the current levels but the bank nifty in clear bearish movements not supporting nifty make me have a sideways view for next week. A major bearishness is not likely.

• Non directional option strategies risk defined and IT stock momentum breakout on result could be tried.