Market corrected fairly : Market Analysis : March 30 2021

 

• March month nifty ended with in red after 5 months of higher highs

• Both weekly and monthly momentum still remaining in the rsi bullish zone. Daily momentum dipped and climbed back to sideways in the last trading session

• Daily ADX rising bearishness in very short term and weekly trend direction movement had earlier crossed over to negative zones but with ADX falling not rising,  while monthly trend still indicate it is upwards in the long term.

• Major window gap support and M candlestick pattern neckline was broken on last Thursday with swing low of 14264 but market has not yet closed below this same gap yet  when Friday it managed to climb a bit up indicating the it could still be a support. The FIB 50 support also hold good.

• The 50 day moving average would be major hurdle upwards which means any moves above 14900 coinciding with FIB levels too could be looks at a market continuing upward journey and also if market fails to hold the support and dips below previous swing low of 14264 then it could be extension of correct that could go up to 14000 FIB 61% levels and if that breaks it would no longer be a correction but beginning of crash which is less likely to happen.

• Open interest on futures indicate that index was bullish. on options OI is bearish with highest resistance at 15000 and major put writing is seen at 14000 levels for April 1 short week expiry. The put call ration also show bullishness

• DII's where the buyers while FII didn't do anything on last session there 2 major sell off days last week by them.

• Bank nifty broke major gap support last week and also ended up with a monthly red candle after 5 months of higher highs. Daily momentum just managed to recover from the dips to sideways but with no indication that it will sustain .

• Weekly  at previous support level that could lead to a change in polarity and bounce from there upwards last session made a bounce from FIB 61% support levels above previous high till 50% FIB but still  did not manage to close in green. Any close above 50 DMA and FIB 38% above 34600 would give hope for bullishness.

• Bollinger band are indicating a consolidation may be over with volatility expanding  walking over bands downside.

• Any weakness further could take bank nifty to 29000 levels of previous swing low

• Open interest on futures indicating bullishness while options open interest is bearish with  highest resistance at 34000 while support seen at 32000 levels for next expiry. Put call ratio is not bullish.

• As expected market broke down last week even when having technical support and the bearish view continues but with a probability that a fair correction has taken place and therefore could not further dip beyond 14000 for nifty and 32000 for bank nifty.