Monday, February 15, 2021

Nifty on top for a breakout which side?

  • 5 days of consolidation and Nifty closed each time on top of a previous window gap support with two of them including the last days candlestick being doji indicating uncertainty in market. 
  • Fib extension 78% seem to be major resistance and was attempted for breaching twice 15250 levels and any up move is only once market crosses above it. and resistance beyond that  could be at 15400 to 15750 based on FIB extension and Pitch fork analysis from last swing. 
  • Apart from the 15000 Big rounding number and previous gap support the 23% FIB and previous support remain same as last week at 14750/14850 levels
  • Candlestick pattern shows a flag breakout 
  • Momentum still at bullish zone on all timeframes daily weekly and monthly. A potential 4 candle weekly bearish divergence didn't playout when last week closed above previous candle high
  • The trend indicated by ADX/DM+/- is bullish on all timeframes but strength is not great and is not rising up.
  • Open interest - nifty futures is showing short buildup on open interest .15500 is having highest call writing which is less than the 15000 highest put writing and with pcr fallen 12%from last value and so overall gives somewhat bearish indications. Monthly expiry has highest put writing at 13950 followed by 14450/14950 while highest calls are seen at 15500 and 16000 levels and overall not bearish.
  • 4.25% fall to 22 levels for VIX market cooled off a bit compared to earlier many days of volatility
  • Sector wise private banks was doing good last day while FMCG went down most
  • FII buying seems to gone negative after 9 days of continuous buying which does not seems to be good



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