Market Heading to 17000 in Sept Series ? Weekly Market Analysis : Aug 30 2021

 

• Weekly hammer candle on Nifty making another all time high where it bounced nearly 1.3%  from the previous week fall trending upside.

• Nearly 2.5% recovery )from previous week fall  in Bank Nifty (later retraced to give up 0.85% of it) forming a small body candle at unchartered area.

• Latest nifty daily candle is also a green hammer candle pattern while bank nifty latest candle is a small body candle at a resistance zone.

• Nifty has the volatility expansion  while Bank nifty has the Bollinger band volatility  had expanded slightly previous weeks.

• Nifty made another all time high level hitting  16722 and this zone seems like a resistance since it was hit few times now while bank nifty still dealing resistance with resistance with retaining 36000 level for few days being a pending task.

• The nifty resistance continue to be 16700 and 16850 and 17000 while previous new support levels at 16350-16450 and 16000-16150  levels and below that swing low levels of  15850-15950 & 15500 - 15650 could  also act as  support zone.

• Bank nifty has  resistance near 35600-36000 and then at 36500/37700 and below supports are at 35300-35450,34900-34400 and 34000-33700.

• Nifty maintains the RSI momentum at bullish zones on all timeframes.Bank nifty continue sideways momentum on both daily and monthly timeframes.

• Nifty has bearish momentum divergences seen on weekly and daily and therefore need be cautious of a correction.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator trend is bullish and rising and with strength  also rising  up on daily and  maintain  the trend bullishness on weekly and monthly timeframes.

• Bank nifty ADX trend indicator crossed over bull zones last week and maintains it on daily and weekly bit  not rising strength  while monthly maintain the bullish trend with strength rising.

• Open interest data for Nifty & Bank nifty showing a short covering  based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for Sept 02 expiry is seen at 16700 with 17000 also seen having more writing while 16600  levels shows highest support point for nifty with 16500 support is close by.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 36000 and 36500 levels while highest put writing also seen at 35000 and 35000  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.21 which is bullish while 0.91  for bank-nifty is  also near  bullish.

• India VIX  dipped  nearly 5%  and settle at 13.4  from the previous weeks 8% spike

• The Nifty IV 11.7 is above HIV 7.8  and  IVP remaining 3.1  levels which is at the low volatility regime. 

• IT sector index once again moved up ~3% last week and the bearish divergence seen weekly can not be negated yet.Therefore need slightly caution even though it is bullish.Dollar strength and work from home model could be behind this vertical bullishness.

• FMCG after the 4.5%  breakout last week this week sector index formed a dragonfly indecisive doji moving up less than 1%  last week. there is a momentum bearish divergence on daily but expectation is that the up move in this defensive sector is likely to continue.

• Metal The bullish reverse divergence of momentum seems to be working when it took a bounce from  momentum support zone on weekly  and daily momentum is expected to catch up and stock could be  picked as it take support at rsi 40 or above gets into bull zones.

• Auto sector  further fall nearly 2% last week bearish and continue moving down toward double top neckline on weekly and is clear bearish momentum on short term.

• Pharma sector  previously  has earlier  fallen into bearishness previous  weeks  but this week it has a hammer on weekly and wide range green candle framed due to bullish momentum divergence seen on daily and could be that it could move up again.

• Last week FII sold > 6830 cr in cash.

• DII bought 6380  cr last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII stayed flat last week.

• US markets  rose up and closed green weekly on all major indices. Fed chair announcement on taper /interest weekend could have impacts on our market.All us markets are seen green as of now following indication of taper begin 2021 and no rush to hike rates.

• Dollar Index fallen nearly 1% last week after a false break out at resistance on weekly W pattern.

• Crude Oil once again bounce up 10%  above 71 after it has fallen  than 8% from top to settled near  64.4 previous week 

• USD-INR currency pair fall from support zone to close 73.4 levels and could have impact on IT rally next week.

• Gold closed green for 3 week after the previous recovery hammer bouncing from the major support zone could continue bullishness heading to the channel top but with slow momentum.

• India VIX continue at  low 13.4 levels and any spike could benefit vega positive strategies on options like double calendar.

• Therefore Index calendar spreads hedged is always bad idea for coming week due to v shape moves often.

• To wrap-up Markets made another all time high level last week recovering from the previous week vertically fall showing the bulls are here to  stay for long.

• Overall bias is  slightly bullish but the  momentum bearish divergence and FII selling and bank nifty not taking away resistances are cause of concern to be cautious.

• Given that bank nifty also has not given up on price trend at least and the nifty  momentum bullishness ,and trend and support levels downside still indicate it still could move at least till 17000 in September 21 but may not be next week.

• India vix fall slightly to 13.4  levels and Lower IV and Vix spikes continue difficult for non directional option traders. intraday spike that occur and V shapes are frequent making intraday trading also not easy.

• Positional long trades could remain long till the support levels as indicated earlier are taken away.

Heading to correction or continue without it ? : Weekly Market Analysis : Aug 23 2021

 

• Weekly bearish bull trap  spinning top candle on Nifty at an all time high from where it dipped nearly 2% making inverted V movement

• Nearly 3.7% vertical fall from the top for Bank Nifty (previous week it broke the 25 week old 36000 on weekly basis)forming a wide range bearish candle.

• Latest nifty daily candle an inverted hammer candle pattern forming a potential change in polarity that may be indicating a reversal from the there while bank nifty latest candle is a spinning top but in a downtrend and at a support zone which also does not rule out bounce back.

• Nifty has the volatility expansion  while Bank nifty has the Bollinger band volatility expansion  had began slightly last week.

• Nifty made another All time high level hitting  17000 but trapping bull with a reversal from there  and taken support at momentum and previous resistance.

• The new resistance would be 16700 and 16850 and 17000 while previous resistances new support levels at 16350 and 16000-16150  levels and below that swing low levels of  15850-15950 & 15500 - 15650 could  also act as  support zone.

• Bank nifty has  resistance near 36000 and then at 36500/37700 and below supports are at 34900-34400 and 34000-33700.

• Nifty maintains the RSI momentum at bullish zones on all timeframes.Bank nifty gave up the momentum from previous week and moving towards 40 support level.

• Nifty has Bullish momentum reverse divergences seen but not confirmed.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator trend is bullish and rising and with strength  also rising  up on daily and  maintain  the trend bullishness on weekly and monthly timeframes.

• Bank nifty ADX trend indicator crossed over once again to bearish zones with not rising strength  while weekly and monthly also maintain the bullish trend.

• Open interest data for Nifty & Bank nifty showing a long  unwinding based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for Aug expiry is seen at 16500 with 16600 also seen having more writing while 15500  levels shows highest support point for nifty with 16000 support is close by.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 36000 and 37000 levels while highest put writing also seen at 35000 and 34000  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.07 which is bullish while 0.66  for bank-nifty is  not bullish.

• India VIX  rose up nearly 8.5%  and settle at 14 and seems  to be trying to break out of the low levels zones.

• The Nifty IV 13.3 is above HIV 8.8  and  IVP remaining 13.9  levels which is at the low volatility regime. 

• IT sector index moved up ~3.5% last week and the bearish divergence seen weekly can not be negated yet.Therefore need slightly caution even though it is bullish.Dollar strength and work from home model could be behind this vertical bullishness.

• FMCG did big breakout last week from the W pattern it was attempting for some time and moved up  ~4.5%  last week after an uncertainty candle previous week. there is a momentum bearish divergence on weekly  and therefore need cautiously wait for the momentum catch up again.

• Metal went bearish following a bearish divergence on weekly timeframe but it now has unconfirmed bullish reverse divergence of momentum and could take the current momentum support and bounce up and daily is at 40 support and therefore it is at a make or break point where any further fall could turn index to bearishness confirmed.

• Auto sector fall 3.45% last week bearish and continue moving down toward double top neckline on weekly and is clear bearish momentum on short term.

• Pharma sector fall more than 4% and  gone into bearishness last week  again with a bearish wide candle. Weekly lost momentum on weekly and moved to sideways.

• Last week FII sold > 4300 cr in cash.

• DII bought 160  cr last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII stayed flat last week.

• US markets fell and recovered closed   green weekly on all major indices.

• Dollar Index strengthened and broke major resistance on weekly W pattern.

• Crude Oil fall more than 8% from top to settled near  64.4 for the week which could be positive for economy.

•  USD-INR currency pair closed green  and continue consolidating at previous support zone.

•  Gold closed green above previous recovery hammer and formed indecisive doji at major support zone could continue bullishness heading to the channel top but with slow momentum.

• India VIX continue at  low 14 levels and any spike could benefit vega positive strategies on options like double calendar.

• Therefore Index calendar spreads hedged is always bad idea for coming week due to v shape moves often.

• Markets made an all time high level last week and then reversed( V shape) with banking index doing a vertically fall nearly 3.7%  from top causing fear of an upcoming correction. 

• Overall bias turned slightly bearish due to above fall and FII selling all days of last week .However  momentum bullishness and divergence, and trend and support levels of nifty still show no signs of any corrections yet although it is clear that unless bank nifty turns bullish nifty cannot further move up.

• India vix rose up and hit 14 levels and indicating it probably is trying to be outside the lower levels. Lower IV and Vix spikes continue difficult for non directional option traders. intraday spike that occur and V shapes are frequent making intraday trading also not easy.

• Positional long trades could remain long till the support levels are indicated earlier are taken away.

Nifty Heading to 17000 if BankIndex catches up? : Weekly Market Analysis : Aug 16 2021

 

• Weekly wide range bullish green breakout candle on Nifty at an All time high & nearly 1.3% move bullish  green candle  for  BankNifty and it broke the 25 week old 36000 on weekly basis.

• Nifty broke out from a 4 day long consolidation after a previous breakout week making near to 2% up move while Banknifty did made good moves and later retraced nearly 0.5% of it.

• Latest nifty daily candle a 1% wide green bullish breakout candle pattern that may be indicating further up move while banknifty latest candle is continue as inside candle of a 2 day back bearish candle and  closed  with green but yet to breakout from the 7 day old consolidation after a previous breakout week and is likely to catch up with nifty next week.

• Nifty has the volatility expansion  while Bank nifty has the Bollinger band volatility expansion  began slightly.

• Nifty at an All time high level of above 16500 and 16000 history in a week trading

• Previous resistances b and b are new support with b rounding no also and swing low levels of  15850-15950 & 15500 - 15650 will also act as  support zone and then 15250-15400 levels below .On the upside it is uncharted and 16550/16800 could be projected.

• Banknifty broke 25 week old resistance of 36000  with resistances above 36500/37700 and below supports are at 35700-35900 and 34400-34700.

• Nifty & Banknifty RSI momentum shifted into bullish zones on all timeframes.

• No divergences of momentum seen.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator trend is bullish and rising and with strength  also rising  up on daily and  maintain  the trend bullishness on weekly and monthly timeframes.

• Bank nifty ADX trend indicator now is in bullish zones showing  not rising on daily timeframes and weekly and monthly also maintain the bullish trend.

• Open interest data for Nifty & Bank nifty showing a long  buildup based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for 18 Aug expiry is seen at 16800 with 17000 also seen having more writing while 16400  levels shows highest support point for nifty with 16300 support is close by.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 36000 and 38000 levels while highest put writing also seen at 36000 and 34500  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.67 which is bullish while 0.97  for bank-nifty is  not bullish.

• India VIX  stayed nearly flat  and settle at 12.9 and continue to be low levels last week after a spike.

• The Nifty IV 12.9 is above HIV 6.3  and  IVP remaining 11.5  levels which is at the low volatility regime. 

• IT sector index moved up ~5% last week and the bearish divergence seen weekly can not be negated.Therefore need slightly caution even though it is bullish.Dollar strength could be behind the bullishness.

• FMCG moved up slightly  ~1%  last week but form a dragonfly doji candle un certainty. there is a momentum bearish divergence on weekly  and therefore need cautiously wait for the momentum catch up again.

• Metal moved flat and form a hammer pattern on this index which show bulls presence. Now a bearish momentum divergence exit in the up move but could be cautiously bullish.

• Auto sector was bearish or flat last week and continue consolidating  on daily for a potential up move breakout later.

• Pharma sector has gone into sideways momentum again with a bearish wide range candle  and bullish momentum is negated and seems to be earlier bearish divergence  continuing bringing it down.Now at a previous support zone and could bounce as well.

• Last week FII bought > 870 cr in cash.

• DII bought 635  cr last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII moved flat last week.

• US markets closed  with  green candles weekly on all major indices.

• Dollar Index weakened to form bearish inverted  candle to take support while earlier week it was heading to neckline resistance zone of W breakout pattern seen.

• Crude Oil fall some more and settled below 70 for the week which could be positive for economy.

•  USD-INR currency pair has uncertainty doji candle and seems consolidating at previous support zone.

•  Gold crashed more than 5% last week and then recovered almost aloof it and could continue bullishness heading to the channel top but with slow momentum.

• Markets is at all time high level break out mode from previous long consolidation although banknifty continue to have previous resistances to clear ahead before a real breakout.

• Overall bias continue  bullish on momentum and now should wait for further break out of banknifty. Suddenly market dynamics changed and trade with caution since major corrections occur when least expected but it makes one more bullish when institutional selling is not seen anymore despite dollar strengthening new trigger played last weeks.

• India vix are at difficult low volatile levels for option traders both buyers and sellers.Trending market is difficult for non directional option traders. Despite low vix there are many intraday spike that occur and V shapes are frequent making intraday trading not easy.

• Positional long trades can continue to trail the stop loss to new support levels and could follow the trend until a clear signal of  breaking  of major support zones indicated earlier.

ATH levels are back again. Has it run too much too fast? : Weekly Technical Market Analysis : Aug 9 2021

 

• Weekly wide range bullish green breakout candle on Nifty & nearly 5% move wide range green candle  for  Bank Nifty.

• Nifty broke out from a 7-8 week long consolidation making near 3% up move and retraced 0.8%  later while Bank nifty did made big moves and later retraced nearly 1,5% of it.

• Latest nifty daily candle has 3 inside bars forming kind of consolidation triangle pattern that may be indicating further up move while bank nifty latest candle is also inside candle and  kind of small body red candle looks almost like spinning top  both is not on the top of rally but during retracement.

• Nifty has the volatility expansion  while Bank nifty continue the Bollinger band volatility contraction and yet to break out.

• Nifty broke out of the  resistances faced earlier at 15850/15950 along with the rounding number psychological level of 16000 and made new ATH near 16350

• Previous resistances and swing low levels of  15850-15950 & 15500 - 15650 will now act as  support zone and then 15250-15400 levels below also could act as support levels  and 15000 level is seen if that is broken.

• Bank nifty is taking support at previous support zone of 35650-35850 with below supports at 34400-34700 and resistances above are 36000/36500 and has further  previous resistances to clear 36500/37700

• Nifty RSI momentum shifted into bullish zones from sideways. The medium to long term momentum is intact in bullish area.

• The bullish momentum positive reverse divergence identified last week worked and moved the market up and continue in place..

• Bank Nifty momentum daily entered bullish zones but sipped back slightly into sideways during retracement and weekly got into bull zones  while monthly  momentum  maintains to be in bullish zones.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator trend is bullish and rising and with strength  picking up on daily but maintain trend bullishness on weekly and monthly timeframes.

• Bank nifty ADX trend indicator now showing rising strength in the bullish zone of trend on daily timeframes and weekly crossed over to bullish trend and monthly maintain the bullish trend as well.

• Open interest data for Nifty & Bank nifty showing a short buildup based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for 12 Aug expiry is seen at 16300 with 16400 also seen having more writing while 15500  levels shows highest support point for nifty with 16000 support is close by.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 36000 levels while highest put writing seen at 35000  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.1 which is bullish while 0.83  for bank-nifty is  not bullish.

• India VIX  move up ~7% but  slipped ~8%  and settle at 12.6 and continue to be low levels last week after a spike.

• The Nifty IV 11.7 is above HIV 9.3  and  IVP remaining 3  levels which is at the low volatility regime. 

• IT sector index moved up ~4% last week and the bearish divergence seen weekly can not be negated. Therefore need slightly caution even though it is bullish. Dollar strength could be behind the bullishness.

• FMCG moved up ~2.5%  last week and gave up some if it later. Now there is a momentum bearish divergence on weekly  and therefore need cautiously wait for the momentum catch up again.

• Metal moved further more than 2% but has a indecisive doji in index. It had as anticipated the  bullish positive reverse divergence worked well and index shot up 10% previous week doing a clear breakout. Now a bearish momentum exit in the up move but could be cautiously bullish.

• Auto sector moved up 3.5% and later gave up 1% of it last week and continue consolidating  on daily for a potential up move breakout.

• Pharma Earlier after the anticipated weekly bearish momentum divergence that worked previous week to bring a correction of 6% as target and ,Now last week the  weekly bullish momentum reverse divergence could be working although a indecisive doji is seen on weekly but could take it back to further up move if divergence works.

• Last week FII bought > 2600 cr in cash.

• DII bought 896 cr last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII moved up last week.

• US markets formed bullish green candles weekly candle on all major indices.

• Dollar Index strengthened to near 1% or more at neckline resistance zone of W breakout pattern seen.

• Crude Oil dipped  near 6.5% last week which could be positive for economy.

• USD-INR currency pair was red forming second  spinning top candle on weekly falling below the previous support zone and  could now be dipping further to channel top side next week

• Gold corrected nearly 4% and taken support on previous price last week and could continue bullishness heading to the channel top but with slow momentum.

• India VIX continue at  low 12.6 levels and any spike could benefit vega positive strategies on options like double calendar.

• Therefore Nifty calendar spreads hedged is always bad idea for coming week due to v shape moves often.

• Markets broke out from consolidation and made big moves and all time highs although bank nifty continue to not have entered the volatility expansion.

• Overall bias is bullish on momentum and trend with possible consolidation near for some days since it did gained quite a lot in short span and should wait for further break out of bank nifty. 

• India vix are at difficult low volatile levels for option traders both buyers and sellers and non directional trades are only to be thought. Will there be immediate mean reversion spike or will it remain at this for long is uncertain.

• Positional long trades now can trail the stop loss to new support levels and could hold good until a clear signal of  breaking  of major support zones indicated earlier.