Consolidation to continue ? : Nifty weekend analysis : May 3 2021

• More than 5% index up move previous week and then in two days gave up 3 % of that after hitting a 15K resistance giving up the 50 dma also that was conquered earlier.

• The price momentum has taken a resistance and turned downward before climbing into the bullish zones. However it still has the support of 20 and 100 dma and still within the trendline channel support.

• Bollinger band shows a consolidation clearly. 14450,14150 and 13600 are seen as supports if it falls off the channel and below the 20 dma support it has taken at 14600.

• 15000 would be hurdle to close if nifty stop the fall and reverse.

• Although the trend has again crossed over to bearish zones both in daily but with ADX falling down showing the bearishness could be short-lived. weekly trend is bullish but ADX is not rising.

• Monthly RSI momentum as well as ADX trend continue to be bullish although weekly momentum is still at resistance.

• Open interest on futures shows short buildup while options data shows highest call writing is at 15000 levels while the support levels seen at 14000 for the next expiry.

• PCR is not bullish yet on nifty at 1.06.

• Bank nifty also made up move as nifty on charts last week but hit the resistance at 50 dma and lost the earlier conquered.

• 100 dma also in the previous 2 days of down move. Support levels are seen at 30400 and 29000 levels if it continue\the down move on Monday. 

• Banknifty also lost the rsi momentum at hit resistance at 34000 levels. Bank nifty trend can be said as having a  weak bearishness on ADX.

• Bank nifty has Weekly trend is bullish but ADX is not rising. But Monthly RSI momentum as well as ADX trend continue to be bullish although weekly momentum is still at resistance.

• Climbing the 50 and 100 dma and closing above it could bring back bullishness in bank nifty.

• Current bearish trend does not have strength if u look at ADX of bank nifty.

• Open interest if bank nifty future is showing long unwinding meaning both price and open interest are falling and is bearish. Options data shows resistance at 34000 levels and support at 32000.

• PCR is not bullish yet on bank nifty at 0.82

• India Vix actually fall overall last week it by  4% and then moved up finally settled at 23 levels.

• Nifty IV is slightly above historic IV and and IVP also has fallen 10 points at 68

• FII sold nearly 3500 crore selling on Friday is a big concern.

• US market remain bullish but local cues are bearish due to covid uncertainty

• Pharma was only sector seen bullish on last trading day.

• Overall the markets are very volatile and doing a consolidation but same time not yet ready to have a crash due to the uncertainty. As long as local cues improve or no major worse news comes in a crash may not happen though there is probability of testing the previous swing lows and then continue the consolidation for weeks ahead until positive news flows in. Intraday trades can be made on support resistance levels without much issue but going bearish or bullish positional or swing trades should be only after the direction  confirmation is clear enough.