Index close by 18000.Caution speed breaker ahead? :Weekly Market Analysis :September 27 2021

 

• Nifty  formed Weekly green candle with near 2% bounce from a previous week dip  and later giving up some of it & making yet another all time high which is 1150 point in just 4 weeks. 

• Bank Nifty also formed green candle hockey stick bounce from support but hardly moved up closing nearby previous week close after hitting  exact previous week high.

• Latest nifty daily candle is a spinning top candle on the top of a rally after hitting new all time high  52  points away from 18000 while bank nifty latest candle is also a spinning top candle during an up move at an all time time both indices formed these after a bounce from previous week dip.

• Nifty & Bank nifty has had volatility expansion and is  moving on the bands of Bollinger.

• Both indices are at all time high levels

• The nifty resistance would 17950 and then 18000 while previous support levels at 17650-17700 and 17350-17450 levels swing low levels and below that at 17250-17300 and then near 17000 levels.

• Bank nifty now has  resistance near 38200 and then 38850 and below supports are at 37700 and then 36900-37200  and near 36600-35900 level below it.

• Both Nifty & Bank Nifty  maintains the RSI momentum at bullish zones on all timeframes.

• Nifty easily met target of last week identified bullish momentum divergences . Now it has a bearish divergence  that could be reversal if confirmed

• Nifty ADX trend indicator trend is bullish and rising and with great strength  also rising  up on and maintain  bullishness  on weekly and monthly timeframes as well.

• Bank nifty ADX trend indicator is in bull zones last week and is rising and maintains it on all timeframes with good strength.

• Open interest data for Nifty showing long buildup & Bank nifty showing a long unwinding  based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for Sept monthly expiry is seen at 18500 with 18000 also seen having more writing while 17000  levels shows highest support point for nifty with 16500 support is next highest support.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 38000 and 40000 levels while highest put writing seen at 37000 and 37500 levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.12  which is not  bullish while 0.89  for bank-nifty is  near  bullish.

• India VIX  shot up once again  near +2% up move and settled at 16.9

• The Nifty IV 14.8  is above HIV 9.8  and  IVP remaining 26%  levels which seems outside of very low volatility regime and forming nee range.

• IT sector move up near 6% last week but formed a gravestone candle on daily and also a bearish divergence that may be signalling a reversal further up ..Dollar strength is at a resistance  while moving up.

• FMCG did move up near 2.5% but gave back most of it and formed a green inverse hammer closed green with all time high and it has a bullish reverse divergence on daily timeframe and  expectation is that the up move in this defensive sector is likely to continue.

• Metal slipped down near 1%  into sideways but bounced back forming a hammer  and bullish reverse divergence is also seen and stock could be  picked up if it sustains the momentum coming week.

• Auto sector  moved more than 1%  last week up and continue gained short term momentum with price above the support zone but weekly momentum continues to be sideways on short and medium term and may need wait for it to catch up.

• Pharma sector  facing momentum resistance and indecisive on weekly chart second time s and would need momentum to come back and price to move above the resistance on daily in order to looks at stocks in the sector

• Reality is having a weekly cup and handle breakout pattern in progress and last week believe it or not it made 22% up move ..Sector is bullish in momentum and trend on all timeframes and time for stock picking for long entry. 

• Last week FII sold~ 10cr in cash.

• DII bough > 3000cr last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII has dipped last week.

• US markets all of the  indices closed green hammer patterns indicating the bull presence.previous week were bearish  due to fed meeting.

• Dollar Index further gained strength last week once again attempted to cross the resistance zone above but has not yet.

• Crude Oil moved > 21% in the last 5 weeks at resistance zone at 77  levels which is not good for indian economy..

• USD-INR currency pair heading up closed green this week as well heading towards previous resistance 74 levels.

• Gold dipped last three weeks nearly 5% now when dollar strengthened and now slipped from the previous support zone.

• Markets formed spinning top at an all time high levels on both indices with a bearish divergence on nifty while momentum and trend intact in bullishness at kissing distance from hitting 18000.

• While there is no options other than to be bullish bias caution continue to be needed for a positional long entry at this point due to candlestick pattern and divergence mentioned  and also since no major interim corrections has come in for long.

• India vix has shot upto near 17 levels and could be forming new volatility range now that traders would now have to adjust themselves with especially option sellers who were complaining of low premium.Profit booking can give traps and intraday reversal for option buyers,

• Ration spreads could be something to look for at this volatility levels and using Vertical Spreads in options are likely to give more probable wins as compared to naked long positions during these peak level while positional long trades could remain long till the support levels as indicated earlier are taken away.

When is Bulls taking some rest? :Weekly Market Analysis : September 20 2021

 

• Nifty  formed Weekly green candle with > 2% up move and later giving up some of it & making yet another all time high following a bearish indecisive previous week.

• Bank Nifty formed wider green candle moving > 3% and later giving up some it but mostly importantly closed making an all time after 7 months.

• Latest nifty daily candle is a bull trap bearish candle on the top of a rally after hitting new all time high  10 points away from 17800 from an earlier 5 days of retracement flag formation  while bank nifty latest candle is a spinning top candle during an up move at an all time time formed after a breakout from earlier a week of consolidation flag formation,

• Nifty & Bank nifty has had volatility expansion and is  moving on the bands of Bollinger.

• Both indices are at all time high levels

• The nifty resistance would 17700-17800 and then 18000 while previous support levels at 17400 and 17250 levels swing low levels and below that near 17000 levels.

• Bank nifty now has  resistance near 37000-38200 and then 38700 and below supports are at 36200-36500 and then 35500-35800  and near 35000 level below it.

• Both Nifty & Bank Nifty  maintains the RSI momentum at bullish zones on all timeframes.

• Nifty could give 8 bar  bullish momentum divergences which is yet to be confirmed on daily timeframe that could move it up again  if it works out.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator trend is bullish and rising and with great strength  also rising  up on and maintain  bullishness  on weekly and monthly timeframes as well.

• Bank nifty ADX trend indicator is in bull zones last week and maintains it on all timeframes with good strength.

• Open interest data for Nifty showing long unwinding & Bank nifty showing a short covering  based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for Sept 23 expiry is seen at 18500 with 18000 also seen having more writing while 17000  levels shows highest support point for nifty with 17800 support is next highest support.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 38000 and 40000 levels while highest put writing also seen at 37000 and 37500  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 0.79  which is not  bullish while 0.89  for bank-nifty is  near  bullish.

• India VIX  shot up once again  +8% up move and settled at 15.2

• The Nifty IV 13.85  is above HIV 5.5  and  IVP remaining 23.4%  levels which seems slowly coming out of very low volatility regime. 

• IT sector index moved further up and the daily reverse divergence worked well to meet targets it  gave up  half of the near 4% move  in the last two days .Dollar strength continue  heading up.However weekly diluted divergence cannot be negated.

• FMCG moved up near 2% but gave back most of it and managed close green all time high and it now has a bullish reverse divergence on daily timeframe and  expectation is that the up move in this defensive sector is likely to continue.

• Metal slipped into sideways momentum when it met resistance once again failing the bullish reverse divergence and remain flat with a bearish candle  and stock could be  picked as it take regains the momentum at the bull zones.

• Auto sector  moved more than 2%  last week up and has gained short term momentum with price above the support zone but weekly momentum continues to be sideways on short and medium term and may need wait for it to catch up.

• Pharma sector  facing momentum resistance and indecisive on weekly charts and would need momentum to come back and price to move above the resistance on daily in order to looks at stocks in the sector

• Reality is having a weekly cup and handle breakout pattern in progress formed a small body inverted hammer showing bearish pressure .Sector is bullish in momentum and trend on all timeframes and time for stock picking for long entry. 

• Last week FII bought > 6465 cr in cash.

• DII sold > 2900 cr last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII has risen last week.

• US markets all of the  indices closed red last two weeks from the all time high levels.

• Dollar Index further gained strength last week once again attempting to cross the resistance zone above.

• Crude Oil moved > 17% in the last 4 weeks at resistance zone at 74,5 levels.

• USD-INR currency pair rebounded previous week and closed green this week as well heading towards previous resistance 74 levels.

• Gold dipped last two weeks more than 4% now when dollar strengthened and now hanging at the previous support zone.

• Markets with roaring bulls at all time high level with banks also breaking out of near 7 month resistance and momentum and trend indicator at extreme levels and all eyes set on 18K.

• While there is no options other than to be bullish bias caution continue to be needed for a positional long entry at this point since US market were red last two weeks and no major interim corrections has come in for long.

• India vix has shot back to 15.2 levels and could be forming new volatility range now that traders would now have to adjust themselves with.Trending moves could have helped buyers previous week.

• Vertical Spreads in options are likely to give more probable wins as compared to naked long positions during these peak levels as reversals due to profit booking could come in, while positional long trades could remain long till the support levels as indicated earlier are taken away.

Will Bank nifty Breakout or take time or break down ?:Weekly Market Analysis : September 13 2021

 

• Weekly ended with an indecisive Doji candle on Nifty making yet another all time high where it was consolidating mostly during this truncated week.

• ‘V’ shape move when Bank Nifty dipped more than 2% and later recovered some of it forming a a hammer inside candle still dealing with 37000.

• Latest nifty daily candle is green inside bar pattern while bank nifty latest candle is a spinning top candle during an up move at a rounding number resistance zone.

• Nifty has had volatility expansion earlier itself while Bank nifty also had the Bollinger band volatility  expansion  previous weeks and started moving on the bands.

• Nifty consolidated last week same time making another all time high level hitting  resistance near 17450  while banknifty dipped and recovered and hit a resistance zone near  37000 .

• The nifty resistance would 17450  and then 17750 while previous support levels at 17050-17150 and 16700 levels swing low levels .

• Bank nifty has  resistance near 37000 and then 37700 above  which is previous all time high and below supports are at 36200-36500 and then 35500-35800  and near 35000 level below it.

• Both Nifty & Bank Nifty  maintains the RSI momentum at bullish zones on all timeframes.

• BankNifty has a range shift and bullish momentum divergences in progress on daily timeframe that could move it up.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator trend is bullish and rising and with strength  also rising  up on and maintain  bullishness  on weekly and monthly timeframes as well.

• Bank nifty ADX trend indicator is in bull zones last week and maintains it on all timeframes with good strength.

• Open interest data for Nifty showing long unwinding & Bank nifty showing a short buildup   based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for Sept 16 expiry is seen at 18000 with 17400 also seen having more writing while 16500  levels shows highest support point for nifty with 17300 support is next highest support.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 37500 and 37000 levels while highest put writing also seen at 34000 and 36000/36500  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.14 which is bullish while 0.84  for bank-nifty is  also near  bullish.

• India VIX  fell  near 8% after previous week +8% up move and settled at 13.9

• The Nifty IV 13 is above HIV 6.3  and  IVP remaining 16%  levels which is at the low volatility regime. 

• IT sector index fell nearly 2% last week after non stop rally for long forming a spinning top weekly candle .There is daily bullish reverse divergence in play which could move it up again. Dollar strength that had earlier weakened now is again heading up. However weekly diluted divergence cannot be negated.

• FMCG consolidated a bit after the breakout moves of previous weeks and sector index formed a weekly hammer candle at an all time high level and expectation is that the up move in this defensive sector is likely to continue.

• Metal consolidated to form a weekly indecisive doji after previous week up move following bullish reverse divergence of momentum which seems to be still in play  and daily momentum continue sideways and expected to catch up and stock could be  picked as it take support at rsi 40 or above gets into bull zones.

• Auto sector  dipped more than 1%  last week up after the previous weeks ~2% reversal move but momentum continues to be sideways on short and medium term and may need wait for it to catch up.

• Pharma sector  also dipped more than 1.5% after previous weeks reversal bullish move and has sideways momentum on short and medium timeframes.

• Reality is having a weekly cup and handle breakout pattern in progress formed a small body indecisive doji showing bearish pressure at top after a previous week 11% bullish up move. Sector is bullish in momentum and trend on all timeframes and time for stock picking for long entry. 

• Last week FII sold > 1100 cr in cash.

• DII sold > 1100  cr last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII dipped last week.

• US markets all of the  indices closed red last week from the all time high levels.

• Dollar Index regained strength last week once again attempting to cross the resistance zone it is currently at.

• Crude Oil remains in the resistance zone at 72.3 levels.

• USD-INR currency pair rebounded nearly 1.25% form the channel end to close above 73.5 levels.

• Gold dipped more than 2.5% last week when dollar strengthened where is hit channel top resistance and now back to previous support zone.

• Markets consolidating at an all time high levels forming a weekly doji on top with banknifty yet to break out of the February levels.

• Overall bias is  mildly bullish just due to the fact that momentum and trend indicators are super bullish with banknifty having bullish reverse divergence too and showing higher high high low price action. However caution continue to be needed for a positional long entry at this point unless another breakout candle appears again.

• If any breakout moves on bank nifty from previous resistances happen then would mean 18000 on nifty is not very far away. 

• India vix fall down again levels more than 8% weekly after previous week rise and Lower IV and Vix spikes continue difficult for non directional option traders. intraday spike that occur and V shapes are frequent making intraday trading also not easy. recent new margin rules and freak trades added up to the concern.

• Calendar spreads are likely to give more probably wins as volatility spike continue from lower levels while Positional long trades could remain long till the support levels as indicated earlier are taken away.

Will next week see some retrace for Bank-nifty to catchup?:Weekly Market Analysis: Sept 06 2021

 

• Weekly wide range bullish candle on Nifty making yet another all time high where it accelerated nearly 5.5%  on the upside.

• Nearly 4% up move from previous week  in Bank Nifty forming a a bullish wide range candle dealing with 37000 now.

• Latest nifty daily candle is also a green small body candle pattern while banknifty latest candle is a spinning top candle during an up move at a rounding number resistance zone.

• Nifty has the volatility expansion  while Bank nifty has the bollinger band volatility  had expanded slightly previous weeks and started moving on the bands.

• Nifty made big moves last week another all time high level hitting  17323 while banknifty also shot up and hit a resistance zone and question now is front is when is it slowing down ?

• The nifty resistance would 17350  and then 17450 /17500 while previous support levels at 17050-17150 and 16700 levels and below that 16375 swing low levels could  also act as  support zone.

• Bank nifty has  resistance near 37000 and then 37700 above t which is previous all time high and below supports are at 36200-36500 and then 35500-35800  and near 35000 level below it.

• Both Nifty & Bank Nifty  maintains the RSI momentum at bullish zones on all timeframes.

• Nifty has bearish momentum divergences (diluted by more candles)seen therefore need  some cautious bullishness.

• Nifty ADX trend indicator trend is bullish and rising and with strength  also rising  up on and maintain  same on weekly and monthly timeframes as well.

• Bank nifty ADX trend indicator is in bull zones last week and maintains it on all timeframes with rising strength.

• Open interest data for Nifty showing long buildup & Bank nifty showing a short buildup   based on the futures contracts.

• Highest options call writing for Sept 09 expiry is seen at 18000 with 17500 also seen having more writing while 17200  levels shows highest support point for nifty with 17000 support is closeby.

• Bank-nifty options open interest data shows highest call writing at 37000 and 38000 levels while highest put writing also seen at 36000 and 36500  levels that could act as support for the expiry

• Put call ratio for nifty accordingly is seen 1.07 which is bullish while 0.72  for bank-nifty is  also near  bullish.

• India VIX  shot up ~8.8% after previous week 5% dip and settled at 14.54

• The Nifty IV 12.9 is above HIV 8  and  IVP remaining 15%  levels which is at the low volatility regime. 

• IT sector index once again moved up ~2% last week despite dollar weakness and the bearish divergence seen weekly can not be negated yet even though diluted with more candles.Therefore need slightly caution even though it is bullish.Dollar strength has weakened as well,

• FMCG further !4% this week  after the breakout previous 2 weeks and sector index formed a wide rang bullish candle and expectation is that the up move in this defensive sector is likely to continue.

• Metal moved nearly ~5% move when the bullish reverse divergence of momentum identified previous week seems to be working when it took a bounce from  momentum support zone on weekly  and daily momentum is expected to catch up and stock could be  picked as it take support at rsi 40 or above gets into bull zones.

• Auto sector  moved up ~2% last week toward double top neckline on weekly double top pattern and previous weeks bearish view could be negated if momentum further catches up instead of falling.

• Pharma sector  made a reversal of more than 4% move forming bullish wide range candle after taking support and momentum is in near bullish zones  n daily and weekly could be that it could move up again and time for stocks in the sector to be added to watchlist.

• Last week FII bought > 6850 cr in cash all days buying.

• DII sold 1400  cr last week

• The net longs on derivatives of FII/DII were rising last week.

• US markets  indices nasdaq/s&p rose up and closed green weekly while dow went flat indices following. Fed chair announcement on taper /interest last weekend.

• Dollar Index further fallen nearly 0.8% last week after a false break out at resistance on weekly W pattern.

• Crude Oil once again shot  up to 73 levels and  settled near  72  previous week forming an indecisive doji.

• USD-INR currency pair further fall ~0.75% again to close 72.9 levels and could have impact on IT rally next week.

• Gold closed green for 4 week after the previous recovery hammer bouncing from the major support zone and now forming a small body after hitting a previous resistance and close by channel top could continue bullishness but with slow momentum.

• Markets are roaring bullish non stop at one again at  all time high levels showing the bulls are here to  stay for long.

• Overall bias is  mildly bullish just due to the fact that market moved 900 points and could do some small consolidation and so caution is the word instead of positional entries at this point.

• Given that bank nifty also joined the up move indicate that 18000 is also possible soon since that index still has long catchup to do.

• India vix fall shot up to 14.5  levels more than 8% weekly after previous week dip and Lower IV and Vix spikes continue difficult for non directional option traders. intraday spike that occur and IV shapes are frequent making intraday trading also not easy.recent new margin rules and freak trades added up to it.

• Swing positions hedged based on iron-fly or calendar spreads are likely to give more probably wins while Positional long trades could remain long till the support levels as indicated earlier are taken away